Tampa Bay Lightning at Florida Panthers, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors FLA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Lightning- Steven StamkosGoals2
- Steven StamkosAssists2
- Steven StamkosPoints4
Panthers- Sam ReinhartGoals2
- Matthew TkachukAssists1
- Sam ReinhartPoints2
Scoring summary
- P318:28Nikita Kucherov Goal (40) Backhand, assists: Brandon Hagel (39), Steven Stamkos (33)5–3
- P316:08Sam Reinhart Goal (48) Snap Shot, assists: none4–3
- P211:55Sam Reinhart Goal (47) Wrist Shot, assists: Sam Bennett (17), Matthew Tkachuk (54)4–2
- P28:23Matthew Tkachuk Goal (22) Snap Shot, assists: Josh Mahura (7)4–1
- P26:59Steven Stamkos Goal (27) Slap Shot, assists: Victor Hedman (55), Nikita Kucherov (74)4–0
- P23:02Darren Raddysh Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Anthony Duclair (13), Steven Stamkos (32)3–0
- P113:21Michael Eyssimont Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Nicholas Paul (19), Nick Perbix (19)2–0
- P10:20Steven Stamkos Goal (26) Wrist Shot, assists: Erik Cernak (9)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P10:20Steven Stamkos Goal (26) Wrist Shot, assists: Erik Cernak (9)TB 1 – 0 FLA · TB 43% → 58% +15TB 43% → 58%+15 pts
- P113:21Michael Eyssimont Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Nicholas Paul (19), Nick Perbix (19)TB 2 – 0 FLA · TB 61% → 75% +15TB 61% → 75%+15 pts
- P23:02Darren Raddysh Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Anthony Duclair (13), Steven Stamkos (32)TB 3 – 0 FLA · TB 79% → 90% +11TB 79% → 90%+11 pts
- P211:55Sam Reinhart Goal (47) Wrist Shot, assists: Sam Bennett (17), Matthew Tkachuk (54)TB 4 – 2 FLA · FLA 7% → 17% +10FLA 7% → 17%+10 pts
- P316:08Sam Reinhart Goal (48) Snap Shot, assists: noneTB 4 – 3 FLA · FLA <1% → 8% +8FLA <1% → 8%+8 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Panthers 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- FLA 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- FLA 62%
- Fair odds
- FLA -130
- TB +130 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TB 2.9 – 3.2 FLA
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TB | FLA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1514 | 1566 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −1 | +1 | TB: Andrei Vasilevskiy: team allows 0.03 more goals than with its usual starter (≈27 weighted starts) · FLA: Sergei Bobrovsky: team allows 0.02 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈30 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | FLA +89 Elo | FLA 62.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | FLA 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | FLA 56.5% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| TB | Stat | FLA |
|---|---|---|
| 7th of 313.5 | Goals scored | 3.213th of 31 |
| 23rd of 313.4 | Goals allowed | 2.42nd of 31 |
| 15th of 31+0.1 | Margin | +0.81st of 31 |
| 19th of 3149.5% | Shot share | 54.7%2nd of 31 |
| 29th of 3189.3% | Save percentage | 91.9%2nd of 31 |
| 13th of 315–5 | Last 10 | 8–21st of 31 |
| 17th of 3114–17 | Road vs home | 20–116th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
TB 0–2 FLA in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 0 of 2.