Nashville Predators at Seattle Kraken, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors SEA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Predators- Roman JosiGoals2
- Ryan McDonaghAssists2
- Roman JosiPoints2
Kraken- Andre BurakovskyGoals1
- Ryker EvansAssists1
- Andre BurakovskyPoints1
Scoring summary
- P318:40Filip Forsberg Goal (35) Wrist Shot, assists: none4–1
- P39:03Roman Josi Goal (17) Slap Shot, assists: Ryan McDonagh (22), Mark Jankowski (5)3–1
- P33:59Roman Josi Goal (16) Wrist Shot, assists: Filip Forsberg (36), Gustav Nyquist (41)2–1
- P31:24Andre Burakovsky Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Ryker Evans (6), Oliver Bjorkstrand (30)1–1
- P115:36Tommy Novak Goal (14) Wrist Shot, assists: Ryan McDonagh (21), Mark Jankowski (4)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P115:36Tommy Novak Goal (14) Wrist Shot, assists: Ryan McDonagh (21), Mark Jankowski (4)NSH 1 – 0 SEA · NSH 47% → 64% +17NSH 47% → 64%+17 pts
- P31:24Andre Burakovsky Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Ryker Evans (6), Oliver Bjorkstrand (30)NSH 1 – 1 SEA · SEA 27% → 52% +25SEA 27% → 52%+25 pts
- P33:59Roman Josi Goal (16) Wrist Shot, assists: Filip Forsberg (36), Gustav Nyquist (41)NSH 2 – 1 SEA · NSH 48% → 75% +26NSH 48% → 75%+26 pts
- P39:03Roman Josi Goal (17) Slap Shot, assists: Ryan McDonagh (22), Mark Jankowski (5)NSH 3 – 1 SEA · NSH 79% → 95% +16NSH 79% → 95%+16 pts
- P318:40Filip Forsberg Goal (35) Wrist Shot, assists: noneNSH 4 – 1 SEA · NSH >99% → >99% +0NSH >99% → >99%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Kraken 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- SEA 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SEA 47%
- Fair odds
- SEA -115
- NSH +115 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NSH 3.0 – 3.2 SEA
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NSH | SEA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1524 | 1484 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +5 | −9 | NSH: Juuse Saros: team allows 0.12 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈32 weighted starts) · SEA: Philipp Grubauer: team allows 0.22 more goals than with its usual starter (≈19 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NSH +19 Elo | NSH 52.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SEA 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SEA 53.5% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| NSH | Stat | SEA |
|---|---|---|
| 15th of 313.2 | Goals scored | 2.827th of 31 |
| 10th of 313.0 | Goals allowed | 2.89th of 31 |
| 13th of 31+0.2 | Margin | −0.118th of 31 |
| 15th of 3150.5% | Shot share | 48.8%22nd of 31 |
| 9th of 3190.8% | Save percentage | 91.3%7th of 31 |
| 1st of 318–2 | Last 10 | 5–515th of 31 |
| 2nd of 3120–12 | Road vs home | 13–1926th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
NSH 1–1 SEA in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 2.