Washington Capitals at Seattle Kraken, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors SEA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Capitals- T.J. OshieGoals1
- T.J. OshiePoints1
Kraken- Oliver BjorkstrandGoals1
- Yanni GourdeAssists1
- Oliver BjorkstrandPoints1
Scoring summary
- P311:36Connor McMichael Goal (14) Backhand, assists: none2–1
- P33:32Oliver Bjorkstrand Goal (18) Wrist Shot, assists: Yanni Gourde (18), Kailer Yamamoto (8)1–1
- P214:20T.J. Oshie Goal (11) Deflected, assists: none1–0
Turning points
The 3 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P214:20T.J. Oshie Goal (11) Deflected, assists: noneWSH 1 – 0 SEA · WSH 44% → 66% +22WSH 44% → 66%+22 pts
- P33:32Oliver Bjorkstrand Goal (18) Wrist Shot, assists: Yanni Gourde (18), Kailer Yamamoto (8)WSH 1 – 1 SEA · SEA 28% → 55% +27SEA 28% → 55%+27 pts
- P311:36Connor McMichael Goal (14) Backhand, assists: noneWSH 2 – 1 SEA · WSH 46% → 81% +35WSH 46% → 81%+35 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Kraken 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- SEA 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SEA 59%
- Fair odds
- SEA -146
- WSH +146 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WSH 2.8 – 3.3 SEA
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WSH | SEA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1489 | 1487 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | — | WSH on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | +3 | +7 | WSH: Charlie Lindgren: team allows 0.07 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈23 weighted starts) · SEA: Joey Daccord: team allows 0.16 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈26 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SEA +66 Elo | SEA 59.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SEA 59.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SEA 59.3% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| WSH | Stat | SEA |
|---|---|---|
| 28th of 312.7 | Goals scored | 2.827th of 31 |
| 18th of 313.1 | Goals allowed | 2.99th of 31 |
| 26th of 31−0.4 | Margin | −0.118th of 31 |
| 26th of 3146.9% | Shot share | 48.8%22nd of 31 |
| 15th of 3190.3% | Save percentage | 91.3%6th of 31 |
| 6th of 316–4 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 31 |
| 23rd of 3113–18 | Road vs home | 13–1825th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
WSH 0–1 SEA in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.