Boston Bruins at Philadelphia Flyers, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors PHI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Bruins- Justin BrazeauGoals1
- Charlie CoyleAssists1
- Danton HeinenPoints1
Flyers- Travis KonecnyGoals2
- Tyson FoersterAssists1
- Travis KonecnyPoints2
Scoring summary
- P318:31Tyson Foerster Goal (18) Snap Shot, assists: Ryan Poehling (14)2–3
- P316:12Danton Heinen Goal (14) Snap Shot, assists: Morgan Geekie (21), Jake DeBrusk (21)2–2
- P315:16Travis Konecny Goal (30) Snap Shot, assists: Morgan Frost (27), Owen Tippett (22)1–2
- P310:19Justin Brazeau Goal (5) Backhand, assists: Charlie Coyle (32), Mason Lohrei (9)1–1
- P218:15Travis Konecny Goal (29) Snap Shot, assists: Tyson Foerster (13), Scott Laughton (23)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P218:15Travis Konecny Goal (29) Snap Shot, assists: Tyson Foerster (13), Scott Laughton (23)BOS 0 – 1 PHI · PHI 52% → 75% +22PHI 52% → 75%+22 pts
- P310:19Justin Brazeau Goal (5) Backhand, assists: Charlie Coyle (32), Mason Lohrei (9)BOS 1 – 1 PHI · BOS 17% → 48% +31BOS 17% → 48%+31 pts
- P315:16Travis Konecny Goal (30) Snap Shot, assists: Morgan Frost (27), Owen Tippett (22)BOS 1 – 2 PHI · PHI 51% → 91% +40PHI 51% → 91%+40 pts
- P316:12Danton Heinen Goal (14) Snap Shot, assists: Morgan Geekie (21), Jake DeBrusk (21)BOS 2 – 2 PHI · BOS 7% → 49% +42BOS 7% → 49%+42 pts
- P318:31Tyson Foerster Goal (18) Snap Shot, assists: Ryan Poehling (14)BOS 2 – 3 PHI · PHI 51% → >99% +48PHI 51% → >99%+48 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Flyers 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI 49%
- Fair odds
- PHI -116
- BOS +116 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BOS 3.0 – 3.2 PHI
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BOS | PHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1531 | 1491 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +1 | −4 | BOS: Linus Ullmark: team allows 0.03 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈23 weighted starts) · PHI: Samuel Ersson: team allows 0.09 more goals than with its usual starter (≈27 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BOS +10 Elo | BOS 51.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 53.7% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| BOS | Stat | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| 10th of 313.3 | Goals scored | 2.922nd of 31 |
| 5th of 312.8 | Goals allowed | 3.117th of 31 |
| 9th of 31+0.6 | Margin | −0.220th of 31 |
| 20th of 3149.0% | Shot share | 54.4%3rd of 31 |
| 4th of 3191.6% | Save percentage | 89.5%26th of 31 |
| 8th of 316–4 | Last 10 | 4–617th of 31 |
| 8th of 3118–14 | Road vs home | 17–1718th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
BOS 2–0 PHI in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 2.