Montreal Canadiens at Colorado Avalanche, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors COL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Canadiens- Joel ArmiaGoals1
- David SavardAssists1
- Joel ArmiaPoints1
Avalanche- Nathan MacKinnonGoals1
- Devon ToewsAssists1
- Nathan MacKinnonPoints1
Scoring summary
- P114:53Joel Armia Goal (12) Wrap-around, assists: Alex Newhook (13), Kaiden Guhle (14)2–1
- P10:52Nick Suzuki Goal (29) Wrist Shot, assists: Juraj Slafkovsky (25), David Savard (12)1–1
- P10:43Nathan MacKinnon Goal (45) Snap Shot, assists: Mikko Rantanen (58), Devon Toews (32)0–1
Turning points
The 3 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P10:43Nathan MacKinnon Goal (45) Snap Shot, assists: Mikko Rantanen (58), Devon Toews (32)MTL 0 – 1 COL · COL 58% → 72% +13COL 58% → 72%+13 pts
- P10:52Nick Suzuki Goal (29) Wrist Shot, assists: Juraj Slafkovsky (25), David Savard (12)MTL 1 – 1 COL · MTL 28% → 42% +14MTL 28% → 42%+14 pts
- P114:53Joel Armia Goal (12) Wrap-around, assists: Alex Newhook (13), Kaiden Guhle (14)MTL 2 – 1 COL · MTL 43% → 59% +17MTL 43% → 59%+17 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Avalanche 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- COL 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- COL 71%
- Fair odds
- COL -140
- MTL +140 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MTL 2.9 – 3.4 COL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MTL | COL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1447 | 1562 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +1 | +5 | MTL: Sam Montembeault: team allows 0.01 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈24 weighted starts) · COL: Justus Annunen: team allows 0.12 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | COL +154 Elo | COL 70.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | COL 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | COL 58.4% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| MTL | Stat | COL |
|---|---|---|
| 27th of 312.8 | Goals scored | 3.81st of 31 |
| 26th of 313.5 | Goals allowed | 3.012th of 31 |
| 27th of 31−0.8 | Margin | +0.81st of 31 |
| 28th of 3146.0% | Shot share | 52.8%6th of 31 |
| 19th of 3190.0% | Save percentage | 90.5%13th of 31 |
| 23rd of 313–7 | Last 10 | 9–11st of 31 |
| 26th of 3113–22 | Road vs home | 26–61st of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
MTL 1–0 COL in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.