Montreal Canadiens at Edmonton Oilers, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors EDM; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Canadiens- Nick SuzukiGoals1
- Jake EvansAssists1
- Nick SuzukiPoints1
Oilers- Connor McDavidGoals1
- Mattias EkholmAssists2
- Connor McDavidPoints2
Scoring summary
- OT3:18Leon Draisaitl Goal (34) Snap Shot, assists: Connor McDavid (82), Darnell Nurse (16)2–3
- P34:43Kaiden Guhle Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: Jake Evans (18), Jordan Harris (7)2–2
- P30:32Nick Suzuki Goal (27) Deflected, assists: Juraj Slafkovsky (23), David Savard (11)1–2
- P214:55Adam Henrique Goal (19) Backhand, assists: Mattias Ekholm (25), Evan Bouchard (50)0–2
- P19:20Connor McDavid Goal (26) Wrist Shot, assists: Mattias Ekholm (24)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P19:20Connor McDavid Goal (26) Wrist Shot, assists: Mattias Ekholm (24)MTL 0 – 1 EDM · EDM 57% → 72% +15EDM 57% → 72%+15 pts
- P214:55Adam Henrique Goal (19) Backhand, assists: Mattias Ekholm (25), Evan Bouchard (50)MTL 0 – 2 EDM · EDM 76% → 90% +14EDM 76% → 90%+14 pts
- P30:32Nick Suzuki Goal (27) Deflected, assists: Juraj Slafkovsky (23), David Savard (11)MTL 1 – 2 EDM · MTL 8% → 23% +14MTL 8% → 23%+14 pts
- P34:43Kaiden Guhle Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: Jake Evans (18), Jordan Harris (7)MTL 2 – 2 EDM · MTL 21% → 46% +25MTL 21% → 46%+25 pts
- OT3:18Leon Draisaitl Goal (34) Snap Shot, assists: Connor McDavid (82), Darnell Nurse (16)MTL 2 – 3 EDM · EDM 51% → 99% +47EDM 51% → 99%+47 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Oilers 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- EDM 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- EDM 68%
- Fair odds
- EDM -137
- MTL +137 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MTL 2.9 – 3.3 EDM
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MTL | EDM | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1445 | 1544 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +2 | +3 | MTL: Sam Montembeault: team allows 0.04 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈23 weighted starts) · EDM: Calvin Pickard: team allows 0.08 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈12 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | EDM +135 Elo | EDM 68.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | EDM 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | EDM 57.8% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| MTL | Stat | EDM |
|---|---|---|
| 26th of 312.8 | Goals scored | 3.55th of 31 |
| 28th of 313.6 | Goals allowed | 2.88th of 31 |
| 28th of 31−0.8 | Margin | +0.75th of 31 |
| 28th of 3146.2% | Shot share | 54.0%4th of 31 |
| 20th of 3190.0% | Save percentage | 90.7%11th of 31 |
| 29th of 312–8 | Last 10 | 7–34th of 31 |
| 26th of 3112–20 | Road vs home | 20–115th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
MTL 0–1 EDM in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.