Montreal Canadiens at Calgary Flames, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CGY; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Canadiens- David SavardGoals1
- Tanner PearsonAssists1
- David SavardPoints1
Flames- Mikael BacklundGoals2
- MacKenzie WeegarAssists3
- Mikael BacklundPoints3
Scoring summary
- P33:54Daniil Miromanov Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: MacKenzie Weegar (24), Mikael Backlund (22)2–5
- P31:01Nazem Kadri Goal (23) Tip-In, assists: Jonathan Huberdeau (34), Yegor Sharangovich (22)2–4
- P218:25David Savard Goal (6) Slap Shot, assists: Tanner Pearson (7), Rafael Harvey-Pinard (7)2–3
- P210:34Cole Caufield Goal (20) Slap Shot, assists: Nick Suzuki (37), Juraj Slafkovsky (22)1–3
- P27:41Martin Pospisil Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Jonathan Huberdeau (33), Nazem Kadri (36)0–3
- P20:11Mikael Backlund Goal (15) Wrist Shot, assists: Blake Coleman (23), MacKenzie Weegar (23)0–2
- P116:23Mikael Backlund Goal (14) Tip-In, assists: MacKenzie Weegar (22), Andrew Mangiapane (25)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P116:23Mikael Backlund Goal (14) Tip-In, assists: MacKenzie Weegar (22), Andrew Mangiapane (25)MTL 0 – 1 CGY · CGY 55% → 71% +16CGY 55% → 71%+16 pts
- P20:11Mikael Backlund Goal (15) Wrist Shot, assists: Blake Coleman (23), MacKenzie Weegar (23)MTL 0 – 2 CGY · CGY 71% → 84% +13CGY 71% → 84%+13 pts
- P27:41Martin Pospisil Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Jonathan Huberdeau (33), Nazem Kadri (36)MTL 0 – 3 CGY · CGY 86% → 95% +8CGY 86% → 95%+8 pts
- P218:25David Savard Goal (6) Slap Shot, assists: Tanner Pearson (7), Rafael Harvey-Pinard (7)MTL 2 – 3 CGY · MTL 10% → 24% +15MTL 10% → 24%+15 pts
- P31:01Nazem Kadri Goal (23) Tip-In, assists: Jonathan Huberdeau (34), Yegor Sharangovich (22)MTL 2 – 4 CGY · CGY 77% → 92% +15CGY 77% → 92%+15 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Flames 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- CGY 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CGY 59%
- Fair odds
- CGY -126
- MTL +126 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MTL 2.9 – 3.2 CGY
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MTL | CGY | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1449 | 1495 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +10 | −10 | MTL: Cayden Primeau: team allows 0.24 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈12 weighted starts) · CGY: Dustin Wolf: team allows 0.25 more goals than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CGY +61 Elo | CGY 58.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CGY 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CGY 55.8% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| MTL | Stat | CGY |
|---|---|---|
| 26th of 312.8 | Goals scored | 3.117th of 31 |
| 27th of 313.5 | Goals allowed | 3.320th of 31 |
| 28th of 31−0.8 | Margin | −0.223rd of 31 |
| 28th of 3146.0% | Shot share | 50.9%14th of 31 |
| 18th of 3190.1% | Save percentage | 89.8%23rd of 31 |
| 28th of 312–8 | Last 10 | 6–46th of 31 |
| 26th of 3112–19 | Road vs home | 16–1619th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
MTL 0–1 CGY in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.