Montreal Canadiens at Vancouver Canucks, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors VAN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Canadiens- Juraj SlafkovskyGoals1
- Cole CaufieldAssists1
- Juraj SlafkovskyPoints1
Canucks- Nikita ZadorovGoals2
- Ilya MikheyevAssists2
- Nikita ZadorovPoints2
Scoring summary
- P311:44Nils Aman Goal (3) Tip-In, assists: Tyler Myers (20), Vasily Podkolzin (1)1–4
- P219:07Juraj Slafkovsky Goal (15) Tip-In, assists: Cole Caufield (34)1–3
- P218:14Conor Garland Goal (15) Wrist Shot, assists: Teddy Blueger (20)0–3
- P119:33Nikita Zadorov Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Ilya Mikheyev (19), Sam Lafferty (11)0–2
- P115:38Nikita Zadorov Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Ilya Mikheyev (18), Elias Lindholm (27)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P115:38Nikita Zadorov Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Ilya Mikheyev (18), Elias Lindholm (27)MTL 0 – 1 VAN · VAN 56% → 72% +16VAN 56% → 72%+16 pts
- P119:33Nikita Zadorov Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Ilya Mikheyev (19), Sam Lafferty (11)MTL 0 – 2 VAN · VAN 72% → 85% +13VAN 72% → 85%+13 pts
- P218:14Conor Garland Goal (15) Wrist Shot, assists: Teddy Blueger (20)MTL 0 – 3 VAN · VAN 91% → 97% +7VAN 91% → 97%+7 pts
- P219:07Juraj Slafkovsky Goal (15) Tip-In, assists: Cole Caufield (34)MTL 1 – 3 VAN · MTL 2% → 9% +6MTL 2% → 9%+6 pts
- P311:44Nils Aman Goal (3) Tip-In, assists: Tyler Myers (20), Vasily Podkolzin (1)MTL 1 – 4 VAN · VAN 98% → >99% +2VAN 98% → >99%+2 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Canucks 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- VAN 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- VAN 66%
- Fair odds
- VAN -135
- MTL +135 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MTL 2.9 – 3.3 VAN
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MTL | VAN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1444 | 1541 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +2 | −11 | MTL: Sam Montembeault: team allows 0.05 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈23 weighted starts) · VAN: Casey DeSmith: team allows 0.28 more goals than with its usual starter (≈17 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | VAN +119 Elo | VAN 66.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | VAN 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | VAN 57.4% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| MTL | Stat | VAN |
|---|---|---|
| 26th of 312.8 | Goals scored | 3.57th of 31 |
| 26th of 313.5 | Goals allowed | 2.74th of 31 |
| 28th of 31−0.8 | Margin | +0.81st of 31 |
| 28th of 3146.2% | Shot share | 49.4%19th of 31 |
| 20th of 3190.0% | Save percentage | 91.1%7th of 31 |
| 28th of 312–8 | Last 10 | 6–46th of 31 |
| 27th of 3112–21 | Road vs home | 21–114th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
MTL 0–1 VAN in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.