Buffalo Sabres at Vancouver Canucks, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors VAN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Sabres- Rasmus DahlinGoals2
- Alex TuchAssists2
- Rasmus DahlinPoints2
Canucks- Elias PetterssonGoals2
- Quinn HughesAssists2
- Elias PetterssonPoints3
Scoring summary
- P319:38Rasmus Dahlin Goal (17) Slap Shot, assists: Tage Thompson (21), Alex Tuch (27)2–3
- P318:09Elias Pettersson Goal (33) Wrist Shot, assists: J.T. Miller (56)1–3
- P39:23Rasmus Dahlin Goal (16) Backhand, assists: Owen Power (22), Alex Tuch (26)1–2
- P213:48Elias Pettersson Goal (32) Backhand, assists: J.T. Miller (55), Quinn Hughes (66)0–2
- P14:06Conor Garland Goal (14) Poke, assists: Quinn Hughes (65), Elias Pettersson (49)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P14:06Conor Garland Goal (14) Poke, assists: Quinn Hughes (65), Elias Pettersson (49)BUF 0 – 1 VAN · VAN 60% → 74% +14VAN 60% → 74%+14 pts
- P213:48Elias Pettersson Goal (32) Backhand, assists: J.T. Miller (55), Quinn Hughes (66)BUF 0 – 2 VAN · VAN 77% → 90% +13VAN 77% → 90%+13 pts
- P39:23Rasmus Dahlin Goal (16) Backhand, assists: Owen Power (22), Alex Tuch (26)BUF 1 – 2 VAN · BUF 3% → 16% +13BUF 3% → 16%+13 pts
- P318:09Elias Pettersson Goal (33) Wrist Shot, assists: J.T. Miller (56)BUF 1 – 3 VAN · VAN 98% → >99% +2VAN 98% → >99%+2 pts
- P319:38Rasmus Dahlin Goal (17) Slap Shot, assists: Tage Thompson (21), Alex Tuch (27)BUF 2 – 3 VAN · BUF 0% → <1% +0BUF 0% → <1%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Canucks 61%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 62.4% of 599 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- VAN 61%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- VAN 67%
- Fair odds
- VAN -155
- BUF +155 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BUF 2.8 – 3.4 VAN
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BUF | VAN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1501 | 1540 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | — | BUF on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | −31 | −15 | BUF: Devon Levi: team allows 0.78 more goals than with its usual starter (≈15 weighted starts) · VAN: Casey DeSmith: team allows 0.37 more goals than with its usual starter (≈16 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | VAN +120 Elo | VAN 66.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | VAN 59.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | VAN 60.8% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| BUF | Stat | VAN |
|---|---|---|
| 19th of 313.0 | Goals scored | 3.54th of 31 |
| 14th of 313.0 | Goals allowed | 2.75th of 31 |
| 16th of 310.0 | Margin | +0.81st of 31 |
| 10th of 3151.8% | Shot share | 49.1%19th of 31 |
| 16th of 3190.3% | Save percentage | 91.1%7th of 31 |
| 9th of 316–4 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 31 |
| 15th of 3116–17 | Road vs home | 20–116th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
BUF 0–1 VAN in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.