Buffalo Sabres at Seattle Kraken, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors SEA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Sabres- Jeff SkinnerGoals3
- Zemgus GirgensonsAssists2
- Jeff SkinnerPoints3
Kraken- Jordan EberleGoals1
- Eeli TolvanenAssists2
- Eeli TolvanenPoints2
Scoring summary
- P318:01Jeff Skinner Goal (24) Slap Shot, assists: Jordan Greenway (15), Jacob Bryson (5)6–2
- P211:18Jeff Skinner Goal (23) Wrist Shot, assists: none5–2
- P210:36Owen Power Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Dylan Cozens (26), JJ Peterka (20)4–2
- P114:36Matty Beniers Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Eeli Tolvanen (21), Justin Schultz (14)3–2
- P15:41Alex Tuch Goal (19) Wrist Shot, assists: Tage Thompson (20), Zemgus Girgensons (5)3–1
- P13:56Jeff Skinner Goal (22) Wrist Shot, assists: Peyton Krebs (11)2–1
- P10:49Tage Thompson Goal (21) Snap Shot, assists: Zemgus Girgensons (4), Alex Tuch (25)1–1
- P10:24Jordan Eberle Goal (15) Wrist Shot, assists: Eeli Tolvanen (20), Brian Dumoulin (9)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P10:24Jordan Eberle Goal (15) Wrist Shot, assists: Eeli Tolvanen (20), Brian Dumoulin (9)BUF 0 – 1 SEA · SEA 55% → 68% +14SEA 55% → 68%+14 pts
- P10:49Tage Thompson Goal (21) Snap Shot, assists: Zemgus Girgensons (4), Alex Tuch (25)BUF 1 – 1 SEA · BUF 31% → 45% +14BUF 31% → 45%+14 pts
- P13:56Jeff Skinner Goal (22) Wrist Shot, assists: Peyton Krebs (11)BUF 2 – 1 SEA · BUF 46% → 60% +15BUF 46% → 60%+15 pts
- P114:36Matty Beniers Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Eeli Tolvanen (21), Justin Schultz (14)BUF 3 – 2 SEA · SEA 23% → 37% +14SEA 23% → 37%+14 pts
- P210:36Owen Power Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Dylan Cozens (26), JJ Peterka (20)BUF 4 – 2 SEA · BUF 67% → 83% +16BUF 67% → 83%+16 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Kraken 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- SEA 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SEA 53%
- Fair odds
- SEA -120
- BUF +120 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BUF 2.9 – 3.2 SEA
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BUF | SEA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1495 | 1479 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +7 | +8 | BUF: Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen: team allows 0.18 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈27 weighted starts) · SEA: Joey Daccord: team allows 0.19 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈27 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SEA +20 Elo | SEA 52.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SEA 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SEA 54.6% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| BUF | Stat | SEA |
|---|---|---|
| 20th of 313.0 | Goals scored | 2.728th of 31 |
| 14th of 313.0 | Goals allowed | 2.99th of 31 |
| 17th of 310.0 | Margin | −0.119th of 31 |
| 10th of 3151.9% | Shot share | 48.7%22nd of 31 |
| 17th of 3190.2% | Save percentage | 91.2%7th of 31 |
| 15th of 315–5 | Last 10 | 4–620th of 31 |
| 17th of 3115–17 | Road vs home | 13–2026th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
BUF 0–1 SEA in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.