Washington Capitals at Vancouver Canucks, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors VAN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Capitals- Alex OvechkinGoals1
- John CarlsonAssists1
- Alex OvechkinPoints1
Canucks- Brock BoeserGoals1
- Ilya MikheyevAssists1
- Brock BoeserPoints1
Scoring summary
- P27:54Alex Ovechkin Goal (19) Wrist Shot, assists: Connor McMichael (13), Alexander Alexeyev (2)2–1
- P26:01Tom Wilson Goal (16) Snap Shot, assists: Ivan Miroshnichenko (1), John Carlson (34)1–1
- P11:11Brock Boeser Goal (36) Tip-In, assists: Quinn Hughes (64), Ilya Mikheyev (17)0–1
Turning points
The 3 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P11:11Brock Boeser Goal (36) Tip-In, assists: Quinn Hughes (64), Ilya Mikheyev (17)WSH 0 – 1 VAN · VAN 56% → 70% +14VAN 56% → 70%+14 pts
- P26:01Tom Wilson Goal (16) Snap Shot, assists: Ivan Miroshnichenko (1), John Carlson (34)WSH 1 – 1 VAN · WSH 28% → 46% +18WSH 28% → 46%+18 pts
- P27:54Alex Ovechkin Goal (19) Wrist Shot, assists: Connor McMichael (13), Alexander Alexeyev (2)WSH 2 – 1 VAN · WSH 46% → 65% +20WSH 46% → 65%+20 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Canucks 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- VAN 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- VAN 59%
- Fair odds
- VAN -126
- WSH +126 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WSH 2.9 – 3.2 VAN
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WSH | VAN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1492 | 1543 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +5 | −19 | WSH: Charlie Lindgren: team allows 0.13 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈24 weighted starts) · VAN: Casey DeSmith: team allows 0.48 more goals than with its usual starter (≈15 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | VAN +61 Elo | VAN 58.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | VAN 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | VAN 55.8% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| WSH | Stat | VAN |
|---|---|---|
| 28th of 312.7 | Goals scored | 3.64th of 31 |
| 17th of 313.1 | Goals allowed | 2.75th of 31 |
| 26th of 31−0.3 | Margin | +0.81st of 31 |
| 26th of 3147.0% | Shot share | 49.1%19th of 31 |
| 15th of 3190.4% | Save percentage | 91.1%8th of 31 |
| 6th of 316–4 | Last 10 | 5–515th of 31 |
| 20th of 3114–18 | Road vs home | 20–103rd of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
WSH 0–1 VAN in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.