Montreal Canadiens at Seattle Kraken, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors SEA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Canadiens- Alex NewhookGoals2
- Kaiden GuhleAssists2
- Kaiden GuhlePoints3
Kraken- Jordan EberleGoals1
- Jamie OleksiakAssists1
- Jordan EberlePoints1
Scoring summary
- P213:16Mike Matheson Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: none5–1
- P20:56Jordan Eberle Goal (16) Wrist Shot, assists: Will Borgen (22), Jamie Oleksiak (9)4–1
- P118:00Alex Newhook Goal (12) Wrist Shot, assists: Brendan Gallagher (10), Kaiden Guhle (13)4–0
- P117:33Nick Suzuki Goal (28) Wrist Shot, assists: Jordan Harris (8), Juraj Slafkovsky (24)3–0
- P16:22Alex Newhook Goal (11) Tip-In, assists: Kaiden Guhle (12), Michael Pezzetta (8)2–0
- P14:18Kaiden Guhle Goal (6) Slap Shot, assists: Cole Caufield (35), Nick Suzuki (38)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P14:18Kaiden Guhle Goal (6) Slap Shot, assists: Cole Caufield (35), Nick Suzuki (38)MTL 1 – 0 SEA · MTL 45% → 60% +15MTL 45% → 60%+15 pts
- P16:22Alex Newhook Goal (11) Tip-In, assists: Kaiden Guhle (12), Michael Pezzetta (8)MTL 2 – 0 SEA · MTL 60% → 74% +14MTL 60% → 74%+14 pts
- P117:33Nick Suzuki Goal (28) Wrist Shot, assists: Jordan Harris (8), Juraj Slafkovsky (24)MTL 3 – 0 SEA · MTL 77% → 88% +11MTL 77% → 88%+11 pts
- P118:00Alex Newhook Goal (12) Wrist Shot, assists: Brendan Gallagher (10), Kaiden Guhle (13)MTL 4 – 0 SEA · MTL 88% → 95% +6MTL 88% → 95%+6 pts
- P20:56Jordan Eberle Goal (16) Wrist Shot, assists: Will Borgen (22), Jamie Oleksiak (9)MTL 4 – 1 SEA · SEA 4% → 11% +6SEA 4% → 11%+6 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Kraken 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- SEA 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SEA 57%
- Fair odds
- SEA -125
- MTL +125 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MTL 2.9 – 3.2 SEA
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MTL | SEA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1441 | 1471 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +4 | −9 | MTL: Cayden Primeau: team allows 0.11 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈13 weighted starts) · SEA: Philipp Grubauer: team allows 0.23 more goals than with its usual starter (≈20 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SEA +51 Elo | SEA 57.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SEA 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SEA 55.5% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| MTL | Stat | SEA |
|---|---|---|
| 27th of 312.7 | Goals scored | 2.728th of 31 |
| 27th of 313.6 | Goals allowed | 2.99th of 31 |
| 28th of 31−0.8 | Margin | −0.223rd of 31 |
| 28th of 3146.1% | Shot share | 48.6%22nd of 31 |
| 21st of 3189.9% | Save percentage | 91.1%8th of 31 |
| 27th of 312–8 | Last 10 | 3–723rd of 31 |
| 26th of 3112–22 | Road vs home | 13–2126th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
MTL 1–0 SEA in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.