Seattle Kraken at Vegas Golden Knights, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors VGK; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Kraken- Jaden SchwartzGoals1
- Oliver BjorkstrandAssists1
- Jaden SchwartzPoints1
Golden Knights- Jack EichelGoals1
- Brayden McNabbAssists2
- Brayden McNabbPoints2
Scoring summary
- P319:48Chandler Stephenson Goal (15) Wrist Shot, assists: Brayden McNabb (20)1–3
- P318:40Keegan Kolesar Goal (6) Backhand, assists: Brett Howden (9), Nicolas Roy (25)1–2
- P313:29Jaden Schwartz Goal (12) Tip-In, assists: Ryker Evans (7), Oliver Bjorkstrand (31)1–1
- P18:14Jack Eichel Goal (22) Wrist Shot, assists: Jonathan Marchessault (22), Brayden McNabb (19)0–1
Turning points
The 4 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P18:14Jack Eichel Goal (22) Wrist Shot, assists: Jonathan Marchessault (22), Brayden McNabb (19)SEA 0 – 1 VGK · VGK 56% → 70% +15VGK 56% → 70%+15 pts
- P313:29Jaden Schwartz Goal (12) Tip-In, assists: Ryker Evans (7), Oliver Bjorkstrand (31)SEA 1 – 1 VGK · SEA 12% → 48% +36SEA 12% → 48%+36 pts
- P318:40Keegan Kolesar Goal (6) Backhand, assists: Brett Howden (9), Nicolas Roy (25)SEA 1 – 2 VGK · VGK 51% → >99% +48VGK 51% → >99%+48 pts
- P319:48Chandler Stephenson Goal (15) Wrist Shot, assists: Brayden McNabb (20)SEA 1 – 3 VGK · VGK >99% → 100% +0VGK >99% → 100%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Golden Knights 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- VGK 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- VGK 60%
- Fair odds
- VGK -127
- SEA +127 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SEA 2.9 – 3.3 VGK
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SEA | VGK | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1474 | 1501 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −10 | −5 | SEA: Philipp Grubauer: team allows 0.26 more goals than with its usual starter (≈20 weighted starts) · VGK: Logan Thompson: team allows 0.12 more goals than with its usual starter (≈24 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | VGK +68 Elo | VGK 59.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | VGK 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | VGK 55.9% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| SEA | Stat | VGK |
|---|---|---|
| 28th of 312.7 | Goals scored | 3.312th of 31 |
| 10th of 312.9 | Goals allowed | 3.015th of 31 |
| 23rd of 31−0.2 | Margin | +0.213th of 31 |
| 22nd of 3148.8% | Shot share | 50.0%17th of 31 |
| 8th of 3191.1% | Save percentage | 90.8%10th of 31 |
| 17th of 314–6 | Last 10 | 4–617th of 31 |
| 19th of 3114–17 | Road vs home | 21–126th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
SEA 1–2 VGK in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 3.