Tampa Bay Lightning at Vegas Golden Knights, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors VGK; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Lightning- Brayden PointGoals2
- Nikita KucherovAssists3
- Nikita KucherovPoints4
Golden Knights- Ben HuttonGoals1
- Keegan KolesarAssists2
- Keegan KolesarPoints2
Scoring summary
- P318:51Nikita Kucherov Goal (41) Wrist Shot, assists: Erik Cernak (10), Steven Stamkos (35)5–3
- P312:14Brayden Point Goal (38) Wrist Shot, assists: Nikita Kucherov (77), Darren Raddysh (23)4–3
- P38:16Ben Hutton Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Keegan Kolesar (8)3–3
- P34:52Brayden Point Goal (37) Snap Shot, assists: Nikita Kucherov (76), Steven Stamkos (34)3–2
- P216:52Brett Howden Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Keegan Kolesar (7)2–2
- P110:37Anthony Duclair Goal (19) Wrist Shot, assists: Nikita Kucherov (75)2–1
- P17:00Anthony Cirelli Goal (15) Snap Shot, assists: Brandon Hagel (40)1–1
- P11:14Jonathan Marchessault Goal (38) Wrist Shot, assists: Shea Theodore (29), Jack Eichel (31)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P110:37Anthony Duclair Goal (19) Wrist Shot, assists: Nikita Kucherov (75)TB 2 – 1 VGK · TB 46% → 62% +16TB 46% → 62%+16 pts
- P216:52Brett Howden Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Keegan Kolesar (7)TB 2 – 2 VGK · VGK 30% → 53% +23VGK 30% → 53%+23 pts
- P34:52Brayden Point Goal (37) Snap Shot, assists: Nikita Kucherov (76), Steven Stamkos (34)TB 3 – 2 VGK · TB 48% → 75% +27TB 48% → 75%+27 pts
- P38:16Ben Hutton Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Keegan Kolesar (8)TB 3 – 3 VGK · VGK 22% → 52% +30VGK 22% → 52%+30 pts
- P312:14Brayden Point Goal (38) Wrist Shot, assists: Nikita Kucherov (77), Darren Raddysh (23)TB 4 – 3 VGK · TB 48% → 84% +35TB 48% → 84%+35 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Golden Knights 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- VGK 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- VGK 52%
- Fair odds
- VGK -120
- TB +120 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TB 3.0 – 3.2 VGK
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TB | VGK | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1519 | 1505 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −1 | −7 | TB: Andrei Vasilevskiy: team allows 0.02 more goals than with its usual starter (≈28 weighted starts) · VGK: Adin Hill: team allows 0.17 more goals than with its usual starter (≈22 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | VGK +15 Elo | VGK 52.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | VGK 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | VGK 54.4% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| TB | Stat | VGK |
|---|---|---|
| 5th of 313.5 | Goals scored | 3.312th of 31 |
| 23rd of 313.4 | Goals allowed | 3.015th of 31 |
| 15th of 31+0.1 | Margin | +0.313th of 31 |
| 20th of 3149.0% | Shot share | 49.9%17th of 31 |
| 28th of 3189.4% | Save percentage | 90.9%10th of 31 |
| 9th of 316–4 | Last 10 | 4–621st of 31 |
| 18th of 3115–17 | Road vs home | 21–113rd of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
TB 1–0 VGK in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.