Columbus Blue Jackets at Pittsburgh Penguins, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors PIT; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blue Jackets- Cole SillingerGoals1
- Cole SillingerAssists1
- Cole SillingerPoints2
Penguins- Evgeni MalkinGoals2
- Sidney CrosbyAssists2
- Evgeni MalkinPoints2
Scoring summary
- P30:35Drew O'Connor Goal (12) Snap Shot, assists: Sidney Crosby (43), Pierre-Olivier Joseph (7)2–3
- P216:11Evgeni Malkin Goal (21) Wrist Shot, assists: Sidney Crosby (42), Michael Bunting (27)2–2
- P213:11Cole Sillinger Goal (12) Snap Shot, assists: Alexandre Texier (15), Ivan Provorov (25)2–1
- P29:50Evgeni Malkin Goal (20) Slap Shot, assists: Kris Letang (34), Bryan Rust (21)1–1
- P25:20Mathieu Olivier Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Damon Severson (16), Cole Sillinger (15)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P25:20Mathieu Olivier Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Damon Severson (16), Cole Sillinger (15)CBJ 1 – 0 PIT · CBJ 45% → 64% +19CBJ 45% → 64%+19 pts
- P29:50Evgeni Malkin Goal (20) Slap Shot, assists: Kris Letang (34), Bryan Rust (21)CBJ 1 – 1 PIT · PIT 34% → 54% +20PIT 34% → 54%+20 pts
- P213:11Cole Sillinger Goal (12) Snap Shot, assists: Alexandre Texier (15), Ivan Provorov (25)CBJ 2 – 1 PIT · CBJ 46% → 67% +21CBJ 46% → 67%+21 pts
- P216:11Evgeni Malkin Goal (21) Wrist Shot, assists: Sidney Crosby (42), Michael Bunting (27)CBJ 2 – 2 PIT · PIT 31% → 54% +22PIT 31% → 54%+22 pts
- P30:35Drew O'Connor Goal (12) Snap Shot, assists: Sidney Crosby (43), Pierre-Olivier Joseph (7)CBJ 2 – 3 PIT · PIT 53% → 77% +23PIT 53% → 77%+23 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Penguins 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- PIT 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PIT 60%
- Fair odds
- PIT -127
- CBJ +127 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CBJ 2.9 – 3.3 PIT
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CBJ | PIT | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1444 | 1483 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | 0 | −5 | CBJ: Daniil Tarasov: team allows 0.00 more goals than with its usual starter (≈17 weighted starts) · PIT: Alex Nedeljkovic: team allows 0.12 more goals than with its usual starter (≈18 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PIT +69 Elo | PIT 59.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PIT 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PIT 56.0% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| CBJ | Stat | PIT |
|---|---|---|
| 24th of 312.9 | Goals scored | 2.922nd of 31 |
| 30th of 313.7 | Goals allowed | 3.013th of 31 |
| 28th of 31−0.8 | Margin | −0.117th of 31 |
| 24th of 3147.2% | Shot share | 51.9%9th of 31 |
| 23rd of 3189.9% | Save percentage | 90.5%13th of 31 |
| 29th of 312–8 | Last 10 | 3–724th of 31 |
| 29th of 3110–25 | Road vs home | 18–1718th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
CBJ 0–2 PIT in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 2.