Carolina Hurricanes at Pittsburgh Penguins, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors PIT; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Hurricanes- Dmitry OrlovGoals1
- Dmitry OrlovPoints1
Penguins- Sidney CrosbyGoals1
- Sidney CrosbyAssists2
- Sidney CrosbyPoints3
Scoring summary
- P319:37Sidney Crosby Goal (35) Wrist Shot, assists: none1–4
- P318:04Drew O'Connor Goal (11) Backhand, assists: Sidney Crosby (41)1–3
- P218:09Bryan Rust Goal (23) Snap Shot, assists: Sidney Crosby (40)1–2
- P211:17Dmitry Orlov Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: none1–1
- P22:41Jesse Puljujarvi Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Lars Eller (13), Valtteri Puustinen (14)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P22:41Jesse Puljujarvi Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Lars Eller (13), Valtteri Puustinen (14)CAR 0 – 1 PIT · PIT 52% → 70% +18PIT 52% → 70%+18 pts
- P211:17Dmitry Orlov Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: noneCAR 1 – 1 PIT · CAR 28% → 48% +20CAR 28% → 48%+20 pts
- P218:09Bryan Rust Goal (23) Snap Shot, assists: Sidney Crosby (40)CAR 1 – 2 PIT · PIT 51% → 74% +22PIT 51% → 74%+22 pts
- P318:04Drew O'Connor Goal (11) Backhand, assists: Sidney Crosby (41)CAR 1 – 3 PIT · PIT 98% → >99% +2PIT 98% → >99%+2 pts
- P319:37Sidney Crosby Goal (35) Wrist Shot, assists: noneCAR 1 – 4 PIT · PIT 100% → 100% +0PIT 100% → 100%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Penguins 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- PIT 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PIT 42%
- Fair odds
- PIT -110
- CAR +110 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CAR 3.0 – 3.2 PIT
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CAR | PIT | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1556 | 1477 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +2 | −9 | CAR: Pyotr Kochetkov: team allows 0.04 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈25 weighted starts) · PIT: Alex Nedeljkovic: team allows 0.24 more goals than with its usual starter (≈17 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CAR +55 Elo | CAR 57.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PIT 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PIT 52.4% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| CAR | Stat | PIT |
|---|---|---|
| 8th of 313.4 | Goals scored | 2.922nd of 31 |
| 5th of 312.8 | Goals allowed | 3.016th of 31 |
| 4th of 31+0.7 | Margin | −0.119th of 31 |
| 1st of 3155.9% | Shot share | 52.1%7th of 31 |
| 18th of 3190.1% | Save percentage | 90.4%14th of 31 |
| 2nd of 318–2 | Last 10 | 2–827th of 31 |
| 4th of 3120–14 | Road vs home | 17–1718th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
CAR 2–1 PIT in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 3.