Carolina Hurricanes at Washington Capitals, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors WSH; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Hurricanes- Sebastian AhoGoals3
- Jake GuentzelAssists3
- Sebastian AhoPoints3
Capitals- Sonny MilanoGoals3
- Dylan StromeAssists3
- Sonny MilanoPoints3
Scoring summary
- SO0:00Dylan Strome Goal Snap Shot0–1
- P317:39Sebastian Aho Goal (30) Deflected, assists: Martin Necas (29), Brent Burns (28)6–6
- P313:53Connor McMichael Goal (16) Backhand, assists: Trevor van Riemsdyk (11), Ivan Miroshnichenko (4)5–6
- P39:35Seth Jarvis Goal (27) Snap Shot, assists: Jake Guentzel (39), Andrei Svechnikov (29)5–5
- P38:19Sonny Milano Goal (13) Wrist Shot, assists: Rasmus Sandin (20), Dylan Strome (34)4–5
- P33:45John Carlson Goal (6) Slap Shot, assists: Hendrix Lapierre (8), Alex Ovechkin (32)4–4
- P219:54Brady Skjei Goal (11) Slap Shot, assists: Martin Necas (28)4–3
- P215:23Sebastian Aho Goal (29) Snap Shot, assists: Jake Guentzel (38)3–3
- P214:40Sonny Milano Goal (12) Batted, assists: Dylan Strome (33)2–3
- P213:59Alex Ovechkin Goal (24) Wrist Shot, assists: Dylan Strome (32), Ivan Miroshnichenko (3)2–2
- P119:12Jaccob Slavin Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: Jesperi Kotkaniemi (14), Stefan Noesen (20)2–1
- P112:45Sonny Milano Goal (11) Backhand, assists: Connor McMichael (14)1–1
- P16:53Sebastian Aho Goal (28) Snap Shot, assists: Jake Guentzel (37), Jaccob Slavin (25)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P33:45John Carlson Goal (6) Slap Shot, assists: Hendrix Lapierre (8), Alex Ovechkin (32)CAR 4 – 4 WSH · WSH 27% → 54% +27WSH 27% → 54%+27 pts
- P38:19Sonny Milano Goal (13) Wrist Shot, assists: Rasmus Sandin (20), Dylan Strome (34)CAR 4 – 5 WSH · WSH 53% → 82% +29WSH 53% → 82%+29 pts
- P39:35Seth Jarvis Goal (27) Snap Shot, assists: Jake Guentzel (39), Andrei Svechnikov (29)CAR 5 – 5 WSH · CAR 17% → 47% +30CAR 17% → 47%+30 pts
- P313:53Connor McMichael Goal (16) Backhand, assists: Trevor van Riemsdyk (11), Ivan Miroshnichenko (4)CAR 5 – 6 WSH · WSH 52% → 88% +36WSH 52% → 88%+36 pts
- P317:39Sebastian Aho Goal (30) Deflected, assists: Martin Necas (29), Brent Burns (28)CAR 6 – 6 WSH · CAR 3% → 49% +46CAR 3% → 49%+46 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Capitals 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- WSH 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- WSH 47%
- Fair odds
- WSH -132
- CAR +132 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CAR 2.9 – 3.3 WSH
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CAR | WSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1557 | 1493 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | — | CAR on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | +9 | −12 | CAR: Pyotr Kochetkov: team allows 0.23 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈24 weighted starts) · WSH: Darcy Kuemper: team allows 0.31 more goals than with its usual starter (≈21 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CAR +20 Elo | CAR 52.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | WSH 59.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | WSH 56.9% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| CAR | Stat | WSH |
|---|---|---|
| 8th of 313.4 | Goals scored | 2.826th of 31 |
| 5th of 312.7 | Goals allowed | 3.118th of 31 |
| 5th of 31+0.7 | Margin | −0.324th of 31 |
| 1st of 3155.9% | Shot share | 47.0%25th of 31 |
| 17th of 3190.2% | Save percentage | 90.3%15th of 31 |
| 2nd of 318–2 | Last 10 | 6–46th of 31 |
| 3rd of 3120–13 | Road vs home | 17–1516th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
CAR 1–1 WSH in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 0 of 2.