Washington Capitals at Calgary Flames, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CGY; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Capitals- Alex OvechkinGoals2
- Nick JensenAssists2
- Alex OvechkinPoints2
Flames- Kevin RooneyGoals1
- Brayden PachalAssists1
- MacKenzie WeegarPoints1
Scoring summary
- P317:31Tom Wilson Goal (17) Slap Shot, assists: Beck Malenstyn (13), Nick Jensen (10)5–2
- P37:13MacKenzie Weegar Goal (16) Slap Shot, assists: Mikael Backlund (23)4–2
- P214:22Hendrix Lapierre Goal (8) Batted, assists: Sonny Milano (7)4–1
- P210:41Kevin Rooney Goal (2) Tip-In, assists: Brayden Pachal (3), Matt Coronato (4)3–1
- P29:16Alex Ovechkin Goal (21) Slap Shot, assists: John Carlson (35), Dylan Strome (30)3–0
- P25:58Alex Ovechkin Goal (20) Tip-In, assists: Max Pacioretty (14), Tom Wilson (14)2–0
- P114:59Dylan Strome Goal (23) Wrist Shot, assists: Rasmus Sandin (18), Nick Jensen (9)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P114:59Dylan Strome Goal (23) Wrist Shot, assists: Rasmus Sandin (18), Nick Jensen (9)WSH 1 – 0 CGY · WSH 46% → 63% +17WSH 46% → 63%+17 pts
- P25:58Alex Ovechkin Goal (20) Tip-In, assists: Max Pacioretty (14), Tom Wilson (14)WSH 2 – 0 CGY · WSH 66% → 81% +16WSH 66% → 81%+16 pts
- P29:16Alex Ovechkin Goal (21) Slap Shot, assists: John Carlson (35), Dylan Strome (30)WSH 3 – 0 CGY · WSH 83% → 93% +10WSH 83% → 93%+10 pts
- P210:41Kevin Rooney Goal (2) Tip-In, assists: Brayden Pachal (3), Matt Coronato (4)WSH 3 – 1 CGY · CGY 7% → 17% +10CGY 7% → 17%+10 pts
- P214:22Hendrix Lapierre Goal (8) Batted, assists: Sonny Milano (7)WSH 4 – 1 CGY · WSH 85% → 95% +9WSH 85% → 95%+9 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Flames 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- CGY 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CGY 51%
- Fair odds
- CGY -119
- WSH +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WSH 3.0 – 3.2 CGY
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WSH | CGY | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1495 | 1499 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +7 | −21 | WSH: Charlie Lindgren: team allows 0.18 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈24 weighted starts) · CGY: Dan Vladar: team allows 0.54 more goals than with its usual starter (≈15 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CGY +10 Elo | CGY 51.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CGY 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CGY 54.3% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| WSH | Stat | CGY |
|---|---|---|
| 28th of 312.7 | Goals scored | 3.117th of 31 |
| 17th of 313.0 | Goals allowed | 3.220th of 31 |
| 25th of 31−0.3 | Margin | −0.119th of 31 |
| 25th of 3147.0% | Shot share | 50.7%14th of 31 |
| 15th of 3190.4% | Save percentage | 89.9%23rd of 31 |
| 6th of 316–4 | Last 10 | 6–46th of 31 |
| 18th of 3115–18 | Road vs home | 17–1618th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
WSH 1–0 CGY in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.