Toronto Maple Leafs at Washington Capitals, NHL forecast
You didn't pick this one.
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors WSH; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Maple Leafs- Auston MatthewsGoals2
- Max DomiAssists4
- Auston MatthewsPoints5
Capitals- Alex OvechkinGoals2
- Rasmus SandinAssists1
- Alex OvechkinPoints2
Scoring summary
- P316:02John Tavares Goal (23) Backhand, assists: William Nylander (53), Auston Matthews (32)7–3
- P38:36Tyler Bertuzzi Goal (15) Wrist Shot, assists: Auston Matthews (31), Max Domi (31)6–3
- P37:58Bobby McMann Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: William Nylander (52), John Tavares (31)5–3
- P36:42Alex Ovechkin Goal (23) Wrist Shot, assists: Dylan Strome (31)4–3
- P219:35Jake McCabe Goal (7) Deflected, assists: Max Domi (30), Auston Matthews (30)4–2
- P213:34Connor McMichael Goal (15) Wrist Shot, assists: Rasmus Sandin (19), Ivan Miroshnichenko (2)3–2
- P212:59Auston Matthews Goal (57) Wrist Shot, assists: Max Domi (29), Timothy Liljegren (18)3–1
- P29:57Alex Ovechkin Goal (22) Slap Shot, assists: John Carlson (36), Tom Wilson (15)2–1
- P20:56William Nylander Goal (38) Snap Shot, assists: John Tavares (30), Matthew Knies (16)2–0
- P10:16Auston Matthews Goal (56) Wrist Shot, assists: Max Domi (28)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P212:59Auston Matthews Goal (57) Wrist Shot, assists: Max Domi (29), Timothy Liljegren (18)TOR 3 – 1 WSH · TOR 65% → 83% +17TOR 65% → 83%+17 pts
- P213:34Connor McMichael Goal (15) Wrist Shot, assists: Rasmus Sandin (19), Ivan Miroshnichenko (2)TOR 3 – 2 WSH · WSH 17% → 34% +17WSH 17% → 34%+17 pts
- P219:35Jake McCabe Goal (7) Deflected, assists: Max Domi (30), Auston Matthews (30)TOR 4 – 2 WSH · TOR 69% → 87% +18TOR 69% → 87%+18 pts
- P36:42Alex Ovechkin Goal (23) Wrist Shot, assists: Dylan Strome (31)TOR 4 – 3 WSH · WSH 7% → 25% +18WSH 7% → 25%+18 pts
- P37:58Bobby McMann Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: William Nylander (52), John Tavares (31)TOR 5 – 3 WSH · TOR 76% → 94% +17TOR 76% → 94%+17 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Capitals 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- WSH 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- WSH 58%
- Fair odds
- WSH -144
- TOR +144 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TOR 2.8 – 3.3 WSH
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TOR | WSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1523 | 1499 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | — | TOR on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | −5 | +7 | TOR: Joseph Woll: team allows 0.14 more goals than with its usual starter (≈13 weighted starts) · WSH: Charlie Lindgren: team allows 0.19 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈25 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | WSH +55 Elo | WSH 57.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | WSH 59.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | WSH 59.0% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| TOR | Stat | WSH |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd of 313.6 | Goals scored | 2.827th of 31 |
| 19th of 313.2 | Goals allowed | 3.015th of 31 |
| 10th of 31+0.4 | Margin | −0.324th of 31 |
| 7th of 3152.3% | Shot share | 47.0%25th of 31 |
| 21st of 3190.0% | Save percentage | 90.5%14th of 31 |
| 15th of 315–5 | Last 10 | 7–34th of 31 |
| 10th of 3117–14 | Road vs home | 17–1414th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
TOR 1–0 WSH in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.