Toronto Maple Leafs at Carolina Hurricanes, NHL forecast
You didn't pick this one.
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CAR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Maple Leafs- Nick RobertsonGoals1
- Auston MatthewsAssists1
- Nick RobertsonPoints1
Hurricanes- Brady SkjeiGoals1
- Jordan StaalAssists1
- Brady SkjeiPoints1
Scoring summary
- P38:51Nicholas Robertson Goal (10) Snap Shot, assists: Auston Matthews (34)1–2
- P113:55Sebastian Aho Goal (31) Wrist Shot, assists: Jake Guentzel (40), Brent Burns (29)0–2
- P11:06Brady Skjei Goal (12) Snap Shot, assists: Jordan Staal (19), Jordan Martinook (14)0–1
Turning points
The 3 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P11:06Brady Skjei Goal (12) Snap Shot, assists: Jordan Staal (19), Jordan Martinook (14)TOR 0 – 1 CAR · CAR 60% → 73% +13CAR 60% → 73%+13 pts
- P113:55Sebastian Aho Goal (31) Wrist Shot, assists: Jake Guentzel (40), Brent Burns (29)TOR 0 – 2 CAR · CAR 74% → 86% +12CAR 74% → 86%+12 pts
- P38:51Nicholas Robertson Goal (10) Snap Shot, assists: Auston Matthews (34)TOR 1 – 2 CAR · TOR 4% → 17% +13TOR 4% → 17%+13 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Hurricanes 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 62.4% of 599 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- CAR 60%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CAR 64%
- Fair odds
- CAR -151
- TOR +151 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TOR 2.8 – 3.4 CAR
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TOR | CAR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1533 | 1554 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | — | TOR on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | −4 | +9 | TOR: Joseph Woll: team allows 0.10 more goals than with its usual starter (≈14 weighted starts) · CAR: Frederik Andersen: team allows 0.23 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CAR +99 Elo | CAR 63.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CAR 59.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CAR 60.2% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| TOR | Stat | CAR |
|---|---|---|
| 2nd of 313.7 | Goals scored | 3.48th of 31 |
| 19th of 313.2 | Goals allowed | 2.87th of 31 |
| 10th of 31+0.5 | Margin | +0.75th of 31 |
| 7th of 3152.2% | Shot share | 55.9%1st of 31 |
| 20th of 3190.0% | Save percentage | 90.0%18th of 31 |
| 8th of 316–4 | Last 10 | 8–22nd of 31 |
| 7th of 3118–14 | Road vs home | 22–137th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
TOR 0–2 CAR in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 0 of 2.