Edmonton Oilers at Toronto Maple Leafs, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors TOR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Oilers- Corey PerryGoals1
- Connor McDavidAssists3
- Connor McDavidPoints3
Maple Leafs- Bobby McMannGoals2
- Timothy LiljegrenAssists2
- Bobby McMannPoints3
Scoring summary
- P319:47Auston Matthews Goal (58) Wrist Shot, assists: none3–6
- P316:21Leon Draisaitl Goal (36) Snap Shot, assists: Connor McDavid (89), Evan Bouchard (54)3–5
- P38:32Corey Perry Goal (10) Tip-In, assists: Evander Kane (18), Connor McDavid (88)2–5
- P34:59Zach Hyman Goal (49) Tip-In, assists: Connor McDavid (87), Evan Bouchard (53)1–5
- P215:46Bobby McMann Goal (13) Wrist Shot, assists: William Nylander (54), John Tavares (33)0–5
- P211:04Pontus Holmberg Goal (6) Tip-In, assists: Bobby McMann (9), Morgan Rielly (44)0–4
- P28:02Pontus Holmberg Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Max Domi (32), Auston Matthews (33)0–3
- P118:14William Nylander Goal (39) Tip-In, assists: Timothy Liljegren (20)0–2
- P14:17Bobby McMann Goal (12) Wrist Shot, assists: John Tavares (32), Timothy Liljegren (19)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P14:17Bobby McMann Goal (12) Wrist Shot, assists: John Tavares (32), Timothy Liljegren (19)EDM 0 – 1 TOR · TOR 54% → 69% +14TOR 54% → 69%+14 pts
- P118:14William Nylander Goal (39) Tip-In, assists: Timothy Liljegren (20)EDM 0 – 2 TOR · TOR 70% → 83% +13TOR 70% → 83%+13 pts
- P28:02Pontus Holmberg Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Max Domi (32), Auston Matthews (33)EDM 0 – 3 TOR · TOR 86% → 94% +8TOR 86% → 94%+8 pts
- P211:04Pontus Holmberg Goal (6) Tip-In, assists: Bobby McMann (9), Morgan Rielly (44)EDM 0 – 4 TOR · TOR 95% → 99% +3TOR 95% → 99%+3 pts
- P215:46Bobby McMann Goal (13) Wrist Shot, assists: William Nylander (54), John Tavares (33)EDM 0 – 5 TOR · TOR >99% → >99% +1TOR >99% → >99%+1 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Maple Leafs 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- TOR 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TOR 52%
- Fair odds
- TOR -119
- EDM +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- EDM 3.0 – 3.3 TOR
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | EDM | TOR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1549 | 1529 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +1 | −1 | EDM: Stuart Skinner: team allows 0.02 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈31 weighted starts) · TOR: Ilya Samsonov: team allows 0.03 more goals than with its usual starter (≈24 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TOR +12 Elo | TOR 51.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TOR 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TOR 54.4% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| EDM | Stat | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| 4th of 313.6 | Goals scored | 3.72nd of 31 |
| 9th of 312.8 | Goals allowed | 3.219th of 31 |
| 3rd of 31+0.7 | Margin | +0.510th of 31 |
| 4th of 3154.1% | Shot share | 52.4%7th of 31 |
| 11th of 3190.7% | Save percentage | 89.9%21st of 31 |
| 4th of 317–3 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 31 |
| 7th of 3118–14 | Road vs home | 17–1516th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
EDM 1–0 TOR in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.