Buffalo Sabres at Edmonton Oilers, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors EDM; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Sabres- JJ PeterkaGoals2
- Lukas RousekAssists1
- JJ PeterkaPoints2
Oilers- Mattias EkholmGoals2
- Connor McDavidAssists4
- Connor McDavidPoints4
Scoring summary
- P319:51Connor Brown Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Sam Carrick (4), Cody Ceci (17)3–8
- P316:58Ryan McLeod Goal (12) Snap Shot, assists: Connor Brown (6)3–7
- P315:18Zach Hyman Goal (48) Snap Shot, assists: Connor McDavid (86), Leon Draisaitl (55)3–6
- P35:40Mattias Ekholm Goal (7) Slap Shot, assists: Leon Draisaitl (54), Connor McDavid (85)3–5
- P34:38Darnell Nurse Goal (9) Snap Shot, assists: Troy Stecher (5)3–4
- P219:12Zach Hyman Goal (47) Deflected, assists: Mattias Ekholm (26), Connor McDavid (84)3–3
- P216:56JJ Peterka Goal (23) Snap Shot, assists: Connor Clifton (13)3–2
- P24:26Mattias Ekholm Goal (6) Snap Shot, assists: Connor McDavid (83), Evan Bouchard (52)2–2
- P118:55Leon Draisaitl Goal (35) Snap Shot, assists: Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (43), Evan Bouchard (51)2–1
- P116:34Victor Olofsson Goal (7) Snap Shot, assists: Bowen Byram (15), Lukas Rousek (1)2–0
- P11:38JJ Peterka Goal (22) Snap Shot, assists: Alex Tuch (28), Tage Thompson (22)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P118:55Leon Draisaitl Goal (35) Snap Shot, assists: Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (43), Evan Bouchard (51)BUF 2 – 1 EDM · EDM 22% → 38% +15EDM 22% → 38%+15 pts
- P24:26Mattias Ekholm Goal (6) Snap Shot, assists: Connor McDavid (83), Evan Bouchard (52)BUF 2 – 2 EDM · EDM 36% → 55% +19EDM 36% → 55%+19 pts
- P216:56JJ Peterka Goal (23) Snap Shot, assists: Connor Clifton (13)BUF 3 – 2 EDM · BUF 46% → 69% +23BUF 46% → 69%+23 pts
- P219:12Zach Hyman Goal (47) Deflected, assists: Mattias Ekholm (26), Connor McDavid (84)BUF 3 – 3 EDM · EDM 30% → 54% +24EDM 30% → 54%+24 pts
- P34:38Darnell Nurse Goal (9) Snap Shot, assists: Troy Stecher (5)BUF 3 – 4 EDM · EDM 53% → 79% +26EDM 53% → 79%+26 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Oilers 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- EDM 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- EDM 60%
- Fair odds
- EDM -128
- BUF +128 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BUF 2.9 – 3.3 EDM
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BUF | EDM | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1499 | 1545 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +10 | +1 | BUF: Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen: team allows 0.25 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈28 weighted starts) · EDM: Stuart Skinner: team allows 0.04 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈30 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | EDM +72 Elo | EDM 60.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | EDM 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | EDM 56.1% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| BUF | Stat | EDM |
|---|---|---|
| 19th of 313.0 | Goals scored | 3.57th of 31 |
| 14th of 313.0 | Goals allowed | 2.88th of 31 |
| 16th of 310.0 | Margin | +0.74th of 31 |
| 12th of 3151.6% | Shot share | 54.0%4th of 31 |
| 15th of 3190.3% | Save percentage | 90.8%11th of 31 |
| 15th of 315–5 | Last 10 | 7–34th of 31 |
| 17th of 3116–18 | Road vs home | 21–113rd of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
BUF 1–0 EDM in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.