Columbus Blue Jackets at Vegas Golden Knights, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors VGK; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blue Jackets- Erik GudbransonGoals1
- Zach WerenskiAssists1
- Erik GudbransonPoints1
Golden Knights- Jack EichelGoals2
- Shea TheodoreAssists2
- Jack EichelPoints2
Scoring summary
- P319:48Carson Meyer Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Trey Fix-Wolansky (1)2–4
- P317:18Jack Eichel Goal (24) Snap Shot, assists: Shea Theodore (31), Chandler Stephenson (29)1–4
- P33:03Pavel Dorofeyev Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Shea Theodore (30), Anthony Mantha (15)1–3
- P24:57Jack Eichel Goal (23) Snap Shot, assists: Zach Whitecloud (7), Chandler Stephenson (28)1–2
- P23:31Ivan Barbashev Goal (15) Wrist Shot, assists: Nicolas Roy (26)1–1
- P14:32Erik Gudbranson Goal (5) Slap Shot, assists: Zach Werenski (39), Kirill Marchenko (16)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P14:32Erik Gudbranson Goal (5) Slap Shot, assists: Zach Werenski (39), Kirill Marchenko (16)CBJ 1 – 0 VGK · CBJ 40% → 55% +15CBJ 40% → 55%+15 pts
- P23:31Ivan Barbashev Goal (15) Wrist Shot, assists: Nicolas Roy (26)CBJ 1 – 1 VGK · VGK 40% → 58% +18VGK 40% → 58%+18 pts
- P24:57Jack Eichel Goal (23) Snap Shot, assists: Zach Whitecloud (7), Chandler Stephenson (28)CBJ 1 – 2 VGK · VGK 58% → 75% +17VGK 58% → 75%+17 pts
- P33:03Pavel Dorofeyev Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Shea Theodore (30), Anthony Mantha (15)CBJ 1 – 3 VGK · VGK 80% → 94% +14VGK 80% → 94%+14 pts
- P317:18Jack Eichel Goal (24) Snap Shot, assists: Shea Theodore (31), Chandler Stephenson (29)CBJ 1 – 4 VGK · VGK >99% → >99% +0VGK >99% → >99%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Golden Knights 61%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 62.4% of 599 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- VGK 61%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- VGK 66%
- Fair odds
- VGK -154
- CBJ +154 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CBJ 2.8 – 3.4 VGK
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CBJ | VGK | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1446 | 1504 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | — | CBJ on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | +1 | −8 | CBJ: Daniil Tarasov: team allows 0.02 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈16 weighted starts) · VGK: Adin Hill: team allows 0.21 more goals than with its usual starter (≈23 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | VGK +114 Elo | VGK 65.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | VGK 59.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | VGK 60.6% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| CBJ | Stat | VGK |
|---|---|---|
| 24th of 312.9 | Goals scored | 3.312th of 31 |
| 30th of 313.7 | Goals allowed | 3.014th of 31 |
| 27th of 31−0.8 | Margin | +0.313th of 31 |
| 24th of 3147.4% | Shot share | 50.1%17th of 31 |
| 23rd of 3189.8% | Save percentage | 90.8%10th of 31 |
| 24th of 313–7 | Last 10 | 4–617th of 31 |
| 29th of 3110–24 | Road vs home | 22–126th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
CBJ 1–0 VGK in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.