Pittsburgh Penguins at Columbus Blue Jackets, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CBJ; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Penguins- Bryan RustGoals1
- Bryan RustAssists1
- Bryan RustPoints2
Blue Jackets- Zach WerenskiGoals1
- Zach WerenskiAssists1
- Zach WerenskiPoints2
Scoring summary
- SO0:00Damon Severson Goal Backhand1–2
- SO0:00Sidney Crosby Goal Snap Shot1–2
- SO0:00Alexandre Texier Goal Snap Shot1–2
- P311:47Zach Werenski Goal (7) Snap Shot, assists: Johnny Gaudreau (44)3–3
- P39:08Kirill Marchenko Goal (19) Snap Shot, assists: Damon Severson (17), Zach Werenski (41)3–2
- P38:59Rickard Rakell Goal (12) Backhand, assists: Evgeni Malkin (35)3–1
- P218:55Bryan Rust Goal (24) Slap Shot, assists: Sidney Crosby (44), Kris Letang (35)2–1
- P213:29Drew O'Connor Goal (13) Slap Shot, assists: Bryan Rust (22), Marcus Pettersson (23)1–1
- P17:47Mathieu Olivier Goal (5) Backhand, assists: Cole Sillinger (16)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P213:29Drew O'Connor Goal (13) Slap Shot, assists: Bryan Rust (22), Marcus Pettersson (23)PIT 1 – 1 CBJ · PIT 27% → 47% +20PIT 27% → 47%+20 pts
- P218:55Bryan Rust Goal (24) Slap Shot, assists: Sidney Crosby (44), Kris Letang (35)PIT 2 – 1 CBJ · PIT 48% → 71% +23PIT 48% → 71%+23 pts
- P38:59Rickard Rakell Goal (12) Backhand, assists: Evgeni Malkin (35)PIT 3 – 1 CBJ · PIT 79% → 95% +16PIT 79% → 95%+16 pts
- P39:08Kirill Marchenko Goal (19) Snap Shot, assists: Damon Severson (17), Zach Werenski (41)PIT 3 – 2 CBJ · CBJ 5% → 21% +16CBJ 5% → 21%+16 pts
- P311:47Zach Werenski Goal (7) Snap Shot, assists: Johnny Gaudreau (44)PIT 3 – 3 CBJ · CBJ 17% → 51% +34CBJ 17% → 51%+34 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Blue Jackets 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- CBJ 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CBJ 49%
- Fair odds
- CBJ -117
- PIT +117 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PIT 3.0 – 3.2 CBJ
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PIT | CBJ | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1485 | 1442 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −3 | −2 | PIT: Alex Nedeljkovic: team allows 0.07 more goals than with its usual starter (≈19 weighted starts) · CBJ: Elvis Merzlikins: team allows 0.04 more goals than with its usual starter (≈26 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PIT +7 Elo | PIT 51.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CBJ 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CBJ 53.8% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| PIT | Stat | CBJ |
|---|---|---|
| 21st of 312.9 | Goals scored | 2.925th of 31 |
| 14th of 313.0 | Goals allowed | 3.729th of 31 |
| 18th of 310.0 | Margin | −0.828th of 31 |
| 9th of 3152.1% | Shot share | 47.0%24th of 31 |
| 14th of 3190.5% | Save percentage | 89.9%22nd of 31 |
| 19th of 314–6 | Last 10 | 2–828th of 31 |
| 28th of 3112–22 | Road vs home | 13–2229th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
PIT 3–0 CBJ in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 3.