Nashville Predators at Colorado Avalanche, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors COL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Predators- Gustav NyquistGoals1
- Gustav NyquistAssists1
- Gustav NyquistPoints2
Avalanche- Nathan MacKinnonGoals2
- Mikko RantanenAssists3
- Nathan MacKinnonPoints4
Scoring summary
- P316:10Nathan MacKinnon Goal (47) Backhand, assists: Mikko Rantanen (61)4–7
- P33:38Nathan MacKinnon Goal (46) Wrist Shot, assists: Josh Manson (16), Devon Toews (33)4–6
- P219:31Yakov Trenin Goal (12) Wrist Shot, assists: none4–5
- P218:25Cale Makar Goal (19) Wrist Shot, assists: Mikko Rantanen (60), Zach Parise (5)4–4
- P25:43Artturi Lehkonen Goal (13) Slap Shot, assists: Cale Makar (62), Jonathan Drouin (33)4–3
- P20:57Gustav Nyquist Goal (22) Wrist Shot, assists: Spencer Stastney (1), Filip Forsberg (43)4–2
- P116:11Casey Mittelstadt Goal (18) Poke, assists: Nathan MacKinnon (80), Cale Makar (61)3–2
- P113:43Dante Fabbro Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Jason Zucker (18), Kiefer Sherwood (14)3–1
- P113:02Mark Jankowski Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Tommy Novak (25)2–1
- P15:25Jonathan Drouin Goal (15) Tip-In, assists: Nathan MacKinnon (79), Mikko Rantanen (59)1–1
- P13:41Cole Smith Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Gustav Nyquist (46), Michael McCarron (10)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P113:02Mark Jankowski Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Tommy Novak (25)NSH 2 – 1 COL · NSH 45% → 61% +16NSH 45% → 61%+16 pts
- P20:57Gustav Nyquist Goal (22) Wrist Shot, assists: Spencer Stastney (1), Filip Forsberg (43)NSH 4 – 2 COL · NSH 63% → 79% +15NSH 63% → 79%+15 pts
- P25:43Artturi Lehkonen Goal (13) Slap Shot, assists: Cale Makar (62), Jonathan Drouin (33)NSH 4 – 3 COL · COL 19% → 35% +16COL 19% → 35%+16 pts
- P218:25Cale Makar Goal (19) Wrist Shot, assists: Mikko Rantanen (60), Zach Parise (5)NSH 4 – 4 COL · COL 30% → 53% +23COL 30% → 53%+23 pts
- P219:31Yakov Trenin Goal (12) Wrist Shot, assists: noneNSH 4 – 5 COL · COL 53% → 76% +23COL 53% → 76%+23 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Avalanche 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- COL 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- COL 57%
- Fair odds
- COL -125
- NSH +125 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NSH 2.9 – 3.2 COL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NSH | COL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1541 | 1555 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +2 | +4 | NSH: Kevin Lankinen: team allows 0.05 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈12 weighted starts) · COL: Alexandar Georgiev: team allows 0.10 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈33 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | COL +51 Elo | COL 57.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | COL 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | COL 55.5% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| NSH | Stat | COL |
|---|---|---|
| 13th of 313.2 | Goals scored | 3.71st of 31 |
| 8th of 312.8 | Goals allowed | 3.012th of 31 |
| 11th of 31+0.4 | Margin | +0.82nd of 31 |
| 14th of 3151.0% | Shot share | 52.9%6th of 31 |
| 7th of 3191.1% | Save percentage | 90.6%13th of 31 |
| 1st of 318–2 | Last 10 | 8–21st of 31 |
| 2nd of 3122–12 | Road vs home | 26–81st of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
NSH 2–0 COL in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 2.