Detroit Red Wings at Nashville Predators, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each period. Above the line favors NSH.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Red Wings
Predators- Filip ForsbergGoals1
- Roman JosiAssists1
- Filip ForsbergPoints1
Scoring summary
- P314:46Filip Forsberg Goal (39) Wrist Shot, assists: Roman Josi (54), Gustav Nyquist (44)0–1
Turning points
The play that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P314:46Filip Forsberg Goal (39) Wrist Shot, assists: Roman Josi (54), Gustav Nyquist (44)DET 0 – 1 NSH · NSH 52% → 90% +38NSH 52% → 90%+38 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Predators 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- NSH 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NSH 61%
- Fair odds
- NSH -128
- DET +128 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DET 2.9 – 3.3 NSH
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DET | NSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1510 | 1537 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −7 | +7 | DET: Alex Lyon: team allows 0.17 more goals than with its usual starter (≈24 weighted starts) · NSH: Juuse Saros: team allows 0.17 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈33 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NSH +76 Elo | NSH 60.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NSH 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NSH 56.2% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| DET | Stat | NSH |
|---|---|---|
| 5th of 313.5 | Goals scored | 3.313th of 31 |
| 23rd of 313.3 | Goals allowed | 2.99th of 31 |
| 15th of 31+0.2 | Margin | +0.412th of 31 |
| 26th of 3146.7% | Shot share | 50.9%13th of 31 |
| 15th of 3190.3% | Save percentage | 91.0%9th of 31 |
| 18th of 314–6 | Last 10 | 8–22nd of 31 |
| 16th of 3115–16 | Road vs home | 18–1514th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
DET 1–0 NSH in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.