New York Islanders at Detroit Red Wings, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DET; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Islanders- Mike ReillyGoals1
- Casey CizikasAssists1
- Mike ReillyPoints1
Red Wings- Andrew CoppGoals2
- Christian FischerAssists2
- Christian FischerPoints3
Scoring summary
- P316:15Dylan Larkin Goal (28) Wrist Shot, assists: Lucas Raymond (36)3–6
- P311:20Mathew Barzal Goal (21) Snap Shot, assists: Adam Pelech (12), Anders Lee (13)3–5
- P39:34Jean-Gabriel Pageau Goal (9) Snap Shot, assists: Ryan Pulock (9), Pierre Engvall (14)2–5
- P36:22Patrick Kane Goal (16) Snap Shot, assists: Alex DeBrincat (34), Shayne Gostisbehere (37)1–5
- P35:12Andrew Copp Goal (12) Wrist Shot, assists: Christian Fischer (14), Michael Rasmussen (20)1–4
- P218:08Dylan Larkin Goal (27) Snap Shot, assists: Alex DeBrincat (33)1–3
- P216:00Andrew Copp Goal (11) Snap Shot, assists: Christian Fischer (13), Ben Chiarot (14)1–2
- P213:25Mike Reilly Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Kyle MacLean (3), Casey Cizikas (9)1–1
- P211:15Christian Fischer Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Michael Rasmussen (19), Moritz Seider (30)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P211:15Christian Fischer Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Michael Rasmussen (19), Moritz Seider (30)NYI 0 – 1 DET · DET 54% → 74% +19DET 54% → 74%+19 pts
- P213:25Mike Reilly Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Kyle MacLean (3), Casey Cizikas (9)NYI 1 – 1 DET · NYI 26% → 46% +20NYI 26% → 46%+20 pts
- P216:00Andrew Copp Goal (11) Snap Shot, assists: Christian Fischer (13), Ben Chiarot (14)NYI 1 – 2 DET · DET 54% → 75% +21DET 54% → 75%+21 pts
- P218:08Dylan Larkin Goal (27) Snap Shot, assists: Alex DeBrincat (33)NYI 1 – 3 DET · DET 76% → 90% +15DET 76% → 90%+15 pts
- P35:12Andrew Copp Goal (12) Wrist Shot, assists: Christian Fischer (14), Michael Rasmussen (20)NYI 1 – 4 DET · DET 94% → 99% +5DET 94% → 99%+5 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Red Wings 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- DET 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DET 59%
- Fair odds
- DET -127
- NYI +127 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYI 3.0 – 3.3 DET
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYI | DET | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1469 | 1506 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | 0 | −9 | NYI: Ilya Sorokin: team allows 0.01 more goals than with its usual starter (≈31 weighted starts) · DET: James Reimer: team allows 0.21 more goals than with its usual starter (≈14 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | DET +64 Elo | DET 59.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DET 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DET 55.9% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| NYI | Stat | DET |
|---|---|---|
| 21st of 313.0 | Goals scored | 3.57th of 31 |
| 24th of 313.4 | Goals allowed | 3.322nd of 31 |
| 26th of 31−0.4 | Margin | +0.215th of 31 |
| 24th of 3147.2% | Shot share | 46.8%26th of 31 |
| 12th of 3190.7% | Save percentage | 90.2%17th of 31 |
| 15th of 315–5 | Last 10 | 4–620th of 31 |
| 24th of 3113–20 | Road vs home | 20–1412th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
NYI 1–1 DET in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 0 of 2.