Vegas Golden Knights at Nashville Predators, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NSH; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Golden Knights- William KarlssonGoals1
- Anthony ManthaAssists2
- William KarlssonPoints2
Predators- Filip ForsbergGoals1
- Filip ForsbergAssists2
- Ryan O'ReillyPoints3
Scoring summary
- OT0:40Roman Josi Goal (19) Wrist Shot, assists: Ryan O'Reilly (36), Filip Forsberg (41)4–5
- P312:57Gustav Nyquist Goal (20) Wrist Shot, assists: Ryan O'Reilly (35), Filip Forsberg (40)4–4
- P312:17Filip Forsberg Goal (40) Poke, assists: Jason Zucker (17), Mark Jankowski (7)4–3
- P35:52Ryan O'Reilly Goal (25) Wrist Shot, assists: Gustav Nyquist (45)4–2
- P219:03William Karlsson Goal (25) Wrist Shot, assists: Noah Hanifin (29), Anthony Mantha (18)4–1
- P214:33Mark Jankowski Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Luke Evangelista (18), Jeremy Lauzon (8)3–1
- P116:43Shea Theodore Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: Paul Cotter (16), Chandler Stephenson (30)3–0
- P15:08Brett Howden Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Anthony Mantha (17), William Karlsson (24)2–0
- P12:45Ivan Barbashev Goal (16) Wrist Shot, assists: Jack Eichel (32), Jonathan Marchessault (23)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P12:45Ivan Barbashev Goal (16) Wrist Shot, assists: Jack Eichel (32), Jonathan Marchessault (23)VGK 1 – 0 NSH · VGK 39% → 54% +15VGK 39% → 54%+15 pts
- P15:08Brett Howden Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Anthony Mantha (17), William Karlsson (24)VGK 2 – 0 NSH · VGK 55% → 69% +14VGK 55% → 69%+14 pts
- P312:17Filip Forsberg Goal (40) Poke, assists: Jason Zucker (17), Mark Jankowski (7)VGK 4 – 3 NSH · NSH 3% → 18% +15NSH 3% → 18%+15 pts
- P312:57Gustav Nyquist Goal (20) Wrist Shot, assists: Ryan O'Reilly (35), Filip Forsberg (40)VGK 4 – 4 NSH · NSH 17% → 54% +37NSH 17% → 54%+37 pts
- OT0:40Roman Josi Goal (19) Wrist Shot, assists: Ryan O'Reilly (36), Filip Forsberg (41)VGK 4 – 5 NSH · NSH 53% → 92% +39NSH 53% → 92%+39 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Predators 61%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 62.4% of 599 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- NSH 61%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NSH 67%
- Fair odds
- NSH -155
- VGK +155 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- VGK 2.8 – 3.4 NSH
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | VGK | NSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1509 | 1539 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | — | VGK on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | −19 | +9 | VGK: Jiri Patera: team allows 0.49 more goals than with its usual starter (≈4 weighted starts) · NSH: Juuse Saros: team allows 0.23 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈33 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NSH +123 Elo | NSH 67.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NSH 59.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NSH 60.9% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| VGK | Stat | NSH |
|---|---|---|
| 12th of 313.3 | Goals scored | 3.213th of 31 |
| 13th of 313.0 | Goals allowed | 2.88th of 31 |
| 13th of 31+0.3 | Margin | +0.412th of 31 |
| 16th of 3150.4% | Shot share | 51.0%13th of 31 |
| 10th of 3190.9% | Save percentage | 91.1%7th of 31 |
| 10th of 316–4 | Last 10 | 8–22nd of 31 |
| 19th of 3115–18 | Road vs home | 19–1515th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
VGK 1–1 NSH in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 2.