Vegas Golden Knights at St. Louis Blues, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors STL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Golden Knights- Pavel DorofeyevGoals1
- William KarlssonAssists1
- Jonathan MarchessaultPoints1
Blues- Brandon SaadGoals1
- Brayden SchennAssists1
- Brandon SaadPoints1
Scoring summary
- OT0:49Jonathan Marchessault Goal (39) Wrist Shot, assists: William Karlsson (23), Shea Theodore (32)2–1
- P314:53Brandon Saad Goal (23) Wrist Shot, assists: Brayden Schenn (21), Jordan Kyrou (32)1–1
- P15:59Pavel Dorofeyev Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: Anthony Mantha (16), Zach Whitecloud (8)1–0
Turning points
The 3 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P15:59Pavel Dorofeyev Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: Anthony Mantha (16), Zach Whitecloud (8)VGK 1 – 0 STL · VGK 45% → 60% +15VGK 45% → 60%+15 pts
- P314:53Brandon Saad Goal (23) Wrist Shot, assists: Brayden Schenn (21), Jordan Kyrou (32)VGK 1 – 1 STL · STL 11% → 52% +40STL 11% → 52%+40 pts
- OT0:49Jonathan Marchessault Goal (39) Wrist Shot, assists: William Karlsson (23), Shea Theodore (32)VGK 2 – 1 STL · VGK 49% → 91% +42VGK 49% → 91%+42 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Blues 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- STL 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- STL 56%
- Fair odds
- STL -123
- VGK +123 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- VGK 3.0 – 3.2 STL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | VGK | STL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1506 | 1509 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −1 | +3 | VGK: Logan Thompson: team allows 0.02 more goals than with its usual starter (≈24 weighted starts) · STL: Jordan Binnington: team allows 0.07 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈31 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | STL +41 Elo | STL 55.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | STL 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | STL 55.2% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| VGK | Stat | STL |
|---|---|---|
| 12th of 313.3 | Goals scored | 2.923rd of 31 |
| 13th of 313.0 | Goals allowed | 3.011th of 31 |
| 13th of 31+0.3 | Margin | 0.017th of 31 |
| 17th of 3150.4% | Shot share | 46.5%27th of 31 |
| 10th of 3190.8% | Save percentage | 91.6%3rd of 31 |
| 12th of 315–5 | Last 10 | 6–49th of 31 |
| 20th of 3114–18 | Road vs home | 20–128th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
VGK 1–1 STL in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 0 of 2.