St. Louis Blues at Minnesota Wild, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MIN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blues- Jordan KyrouGoals3
- Pavel BuchnevichAssists3
- Jordan KyrouPoints3
Wild- Marco RossiGoals2
- Kirill KaprizovAssists2
- Marco RossiPoints2
Scoring summary
- OT2:05Brandon Saad Goal (22) Wrist Shot, assists: Kasperi Kapanen (15), Justin Faulk (25)5–4
- P314:51Brock Faber Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Ryan Hartman (23), Jake Middleton (15)4–4
- P310:01Jordan Kyrou Goal (25) Wrist Shot, assists: Brandon Saad (14), Pavel Buchnevich (32)4–3
- P33:50Jordan Kyrou Goal (24) Wrist Shot, assists: Pavel Buchnevich (31), Nick Leddy (22)3–3
- P215:11Marco Rossi Goal (20) Deflected, assists: Mats Zuccarello (45), Kirill Kaprizov (43)2–3
- P212:49Jordan Kyrou Goal (23) Tip-In, assists: Pavel Buchnevich (30)2–2
- P211:44Marco Rossi Goal (19) Wrist Shot, assists: Kirill Kaprizov (42)1–2
- P24:45Marcus Johansson Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Brock Faber (33), Matt Boldy (32)1–1
- P110:07Jake Neighbours Goal (25) Wrist Shot, assists: Brayden Schenn (20)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P215:11Marco Rossi Goal (20) Deflected, assists: Mats Zuccarello (45), Kirill Kaprizov (43)STL 2 – 3 MIN · MIN 53% → 74% +21MIN 53% → 74%+21 pts
- P33:50Jordan Kyrou Goal (24) Wrist Shot, assists: Pavel Buchnevich (31), Nick Leddy (22)STL 3 – 3 MIN · STL 22% → 48% +25STL 22% → 48%+25 pts
- P310:01Jordan Kyrou Goal (25) Wrist Shot, assists: Brandon Saad (14), Pavel Buchnevich (32)STL 4 – 3 MIN · STL 48% → 80% +32STL 48% → 80%+32 pts
- P314:51Brock Faber Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Ryan Hartman (23), Jake Middleton (15)STL 4 – 4 MIN · MIN 11% → 51% +40MIN 11% → 51%+40 pts
- OT2:05Brandon Saad Goal (22) Wrist Shot, assists: Kasperi Kapanen (15), Justin Faulk (25)STL 5 – 4 MIN · STL 49% → 95% +46STL 49% → 95%+46 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Wild 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN 53%
- Fair odds
- MIN -120
- STL +120 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- STL 3.0 – 3.2 MIN
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | STL | MIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1506 | 1497 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +4 | −3 | STL: Jordan Binnington: team allows 0.11 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈30 weighted starts) · MIN: Marc-Andre Fleury: team allows 0.07 more goals than with its usual starter (≈22 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIN +19 Elo | MIN 52.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 54.6% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| STL | Stat | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| 25th of 312.9 | Goals scored | 3.116th of 31 |
| 11th of 313.0 | Goals allowed | 3.320th of 31 |
| 17th of 31−0.1 | Margin | −0.221st of 31 |
| 27th of 3146.6% | Shot share | 49.8%18th of 31 |
| 3rd of 3191.6% | Save percentage | 89.7%24th of 31 |
| 8th of 316–4 | Last 10 | 4–618th of 31 |
| 20th of 3115–19 | Road vs home | 17–1414th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
STL 2–1 MIN in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 3.