Minnesota Wild at Los Angeles Kings, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors LA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Wild
Kings- Anze KopitarGoals1
- Trevor MooreAssists2
- Anze KopitarPoints2
Scoring summary
- P217:15Anze Kopitar Goal (23) Slap Shot, assists: Drew Doughty (30), Viktor Arvidsson (3)0–6
- P27:34Jordan Spence Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Trevor Moore (23), Phillip Danault (25)0–5
- P20:28Matt Roy Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Quinton Byfield (31), Adrian Kempe (39)0–4
- P116:26Viktor Arvidsson Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Mikey Anderson (15), Drew Doughty (29)0–3
- P115:03Kevin Fiala Goal (23) Snap Shot, assists: Anze Kopitar (37), Adrian Kempe (38)0–2
- P15:08Phillip Danault Goal (17) Tip-In, assists: Trevor Moore (22), Kevin Fiala (39)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P15:08Phillip Danault Goal (17) Tip-In, assists: Trevor Moore (22), Kevin Fiala (39)MIN 0 – 1 LA · LA 55% → 69% +14LA 55% → 69%+14 pts
- P115:03Kevin Fiala Goal (23) Snap Shot, assists: Anze Kopitar (37), Adrian Kempe (38)MIN 0 – 2 LA · LA 70% → 83% +13LA 70% → 83%+13 pts
- P116:26Viktor Arvidsson Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Mikey Anderson (15), Drew Doughty (29)MIN 0 – 3 LA · LA 83% → 92% +9LA 83% → 92%+9 pts
- P20:28Matt Roy Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Quinton Byfield (31), Adrian Kempe (39)MIN 0 – 4 LA · LA 93% → 97% +4LA 93% → 97%+4 pts
- P27:34Jordan Spence Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Trevor Moore (23), Phillip Danault (25)MIN 0 – 5 LA · LA 98% → >99% +1LA 98% → >99%+1 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Kings 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- LA 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LA 55%
- Fair odds
- LA -123
- MIN +123 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIN 2.9 – 3.2 LA
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIN | LA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1502 | 1508 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | −30 | LA and MIN on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | +2 | −1 | MIN: Marc-Andre Fleury: team allows 0.04 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈21 weighted starts) · LA: David Rittich: team allows 0.04 more goals than with its usual starter (≈15 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LA +37 Elo | LA 55.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LA 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LA 55.1% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| MIN | Stat | LA |
|---|---|---|
| 16th of 313.1 | Goals scored | 3.019th of 31 |
| 20th of 313.2 | Goals allowed | 2.63rd of 31 |
| 18th of 31−0.1 | Margin | +0.411th of 31 |
| 18th of 3149.7% | Shot share | 53.6%5th of 31 |
| 24th of 3189.9% | Save percentage | 91.3%6th of 31 |
| 15th of 315–5 | Last 10 | 6–49th of 31 |
| 21st of 3114–18 | Road vs home | 14–1824th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
MIN 0–1 LA in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.