Minnesota Wild at Anaheim Ducks, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors ANA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Wild- Ryan HartmanGoals1
- Matt BoldyAssists2
- Ryan HartmanPoints2
DucksScoring summary
- P313:03Jacob Lucchini Goal (2) Slap Shot, assists: Adam Beckman (2)4–0
- P211:50Kirill Kaprizov Goal (36) Backhand, assists: Ryan Hartman (22), Matt Boldy (31)3–0
- P21:56Jon Merrill Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Frederick Gaudreau (10), Marat Khusnutdinov (1)2–0
- P20:35Ryan Hartman Goal (18) Tip-In, assists: Marcus Foligno (12), Matt Boldy (30)1–0
Turning points
The 4 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P20:35Ryan Hartman Goal (18) Tip-In, assists: Marcus Foligno (12), Matt Boldy (30)MIN 1 – 0 ANA · MIN 48% → 65% +18MIN 48% → 65%+18 pts
- P21:56Jon Merrill Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Frederick Gaudreau (10), Marat Khusnutdinov (1)MIN 2 – 0 ANA · MIN 66% → 81% +15MIN 66% → 81%+15 pts
- P211:50Kirill Kaprizov Goal (36) Backhand, assists: Ryan Hartman (22), Matt Boldy (31)MIN 3 – 0 ANA · MIN 85% → 94% +9MIN 85% → 94%+9 pts
- P313:03Jacob Lucchini Goal (2) Slap Shot, assists: Adam Beckman (2)MIN 4 – 0 ANA · MIN >99% → >99% +0MIN >99% → >99%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Ducks 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- ANA 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ANA 44%
- Fair odds
- ANA -112
- MIN +112 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIN 3.0 – 3.2 ANA
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIN | ANA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1498 | 1425 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +2 | −2 | MIN: Filip Gustavsson: team allows 0.05 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈26 weighted starts) · ANA: John Gibson: team allows 0.05 more goals than with its usual starter (≈27 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIN +42 Elo | MIN 56.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ANA 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ANA 52.8% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| MIN | Stat | ANA |
|---|---|---|
| 16th of 313.1 | Goals scored | 2.629th of 31 |
| 20th of 313.3 | Goals allowed | 3.730th of 31 |
| 20th of 31−0.1 | Margin | −1.229th of 31 |
| 18th of 3149.7% | Shot share | 45.1%30th of 31 |
| 25th of 3189.7% | Save percentage | 89.4%29th of 31 |
| 14th of 315–5 | Last 10 | 3–726th of 31 |
| 23rd of 3113–18 | Road vs home | 9–2331st of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
MIN 1–1 ANA in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 2.