Chicago Blackhawks at Los Angeles Kings, NHL forecast
You didn't pick this one.
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors LA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blackhawks- Nick FolignoGoals1
- Philipp KurashevAssists2
- Philipp KurashevPoints2
Kings- Anze KopitarGoals2
- Adrian KempeAssists3
- Anze KopitarPoints3
Scoring summary
- P317:10Trevor Lewis Goal (8) Tip-In, assists: Pierre-Luc Dubois (18), Vladislav Gavrikov (14)2–6
- P314:16Kevin Korchinski Goal (5) Slap Shot, assists: Philipp Kurashev (30), Connor Bedard (33)2–5
- P35:47Phillip Danault Goal (16) Tip-In, assists: Trevor Moore (21), Kevin Fiala (38)1–5
- P219:08Anze Kopitar Goal (22) Deflected, assists: Adrian Kempe (37), Kevin Fiala (37)1–4
- P211:52Anze Kopitar Goal (21) Slap Shot, assists: Adrian Kempe (36)1–3
- P29:32Vladislav Gavrikov Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: Anze Kopitar (36), Adrian Kempe (35)1–2
- P114:27Nick Foligno Goal (16) Deflected, assists: Philipp Kurashev (29), Seth Jones (22)1–1
- P112:03Alex Laferriere Goal (11) Backhand, assists: Blake Lizotte (6), Pierre-Luc Dubois (17)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P112:03Alex Laferriere Goal (11) Backhand, assists: Blake Lizotte (6), Pierre-Luc Dubois (17)CHI 0 – 1 LA · LA 57% → 72% +15LA 57% → 72%+15 pts
- P114:27Nick Foligno Goal (16) Deflected, assists: Philipp Kurashev (29), Seth Jones (22)CHI 1 – 1 LA · CHI 28% → 43% +15CHI 28% → 43%+15 pts
- P29:32Vladislav Gavrikov Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: Anze Kopitar (36), Adrian Kempe (35)CHI 1 – 2 LA · LA 56% → 74% +19LA 56% → 74%+19 pts
- P211:52Anze Kopitar Goal (21) Slap Shot, assists: Adrian Kempe (36)CHI 1 – 3 LA · LA 75% → 89% +14LA 75% → 89%+14 pts
- P219:08Anze Kopitar Goal (22) Deflected, assists: Adrian Kempe (37), Kevin Fiala (37)CHI 1 – 4 LA · LA 91% → 98% +6LA 91% → 98%+6 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Kings 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- LA 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LA 68%
- Fair odds
- LA -137
- CHI +137 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHI 2.8 – 3.3 LA
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHI | LA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1403 | 1505 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +6 | +2 | CHI: Petr Mrazek: team allows 0.14 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈29 weighted starts) · LA: Cam Talbot: team allows 0.06 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈28 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LA +133 Elo | LA 68.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LA 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LA 57.8% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| CHI | Stat | LA |
|---|---|---|
| 31st of 312.1 | Goals scored | 3.021st of 31 |
| 26th of 313.5 | Goals allowed | 2.73rd of 31 |
| 30th of 31−1.4 | Margin | +0.312th of 31 |
| 29th of 3145.2% | Shot share | 53.7%5th of 31 |
| 24th of 3189.8% | Save percentage | 91.3%6th of 31 |
| 29th of 312–8 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 31 |
| 31st of 314–26 | Road vs home | 13–1825th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
CHI 0–1 LA in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.