San Jose Sharks at Chicago Blackhawks, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CHI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Sharks- Klim KostinGoals1
- Mario FerraroAssists1
- Ryan CarpenterPoints1
Blackhawks- Philipp KurashevGoals1
- Tyler JohnsonAssists2
- Philipp KurashevPoints2
Scoring summary
- P319:59Connor Bedard Goal (21) Wrist Shot, assists: Philipp Kurashev (28), Tyler Johnson (11)2–5
- P312:02Joey Anderson Goal (3) Backhand, assists: Colin Blackwell (4), Alex Vlasic (13)2–4
- P311:51Kevin Korchinski Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Lukas Reichel (8)2–3
- P310:39Ryan Donato Goal (10) Slap Shot, assists: Jarred Tinordi (8), Jaycob Megna (2)2–2
- P214:02Philipp Kurashev Goal (14) Tip-In, assists: Tyler Johnson (10), Connor Bedard (32)2–1
- P116:32Klim Kostin Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: Mikael Granlund (35), Mario Ferraro (15)2–0
- P110:33Ryan Carpenter Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Alexander Barabanov (9), Kevin Labanc (7)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P110:33Ryan Carpenter Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Alexander Barabanov (9), Kevin Labanc (7)SJ 1 – 0 CHI · SJ 42% → 58% +16SJ 42% → 58%+16 pts
- P116:32Klim Kostin Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: Mikael Granlund (35), Mario Ferraro (15)SJ 2 – 0 CHI · SJ 59% → 75% +15SJ 59% → 75%+15 pts
- P214:02Philipp Kurashev Goal (14) Tip-In, assists: Tyler Johnson (10), Connor Bedard (32)SJ 2 – 1 CHI · CHI 17% → 34% +17CHI 17% → 34%+17 pts
- P310:39Ryan Donato Goal (10) Slap Shot, assists: Jarred Tinordi (8), Jaycob Megna (2)SJ 2 – 2 CHI · CHI 20% → 53% +33CHI 20% → 53%+33 pts
- P311:51Kevin Korchinski Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Lukas Reichel (8)SJ 2 – 3 CHI · CHI 53% → 86% +33CHI 53% → 86%+33 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Blackhawks 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- CHI 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHI 57%
- Fair odds
- CHI -142
- SJ +142 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SJ 2.8 – 3.3 CHI
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SJ | CHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1399 | 1399 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | — | SJ on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | +22 | +5 | SJ: Devin Cooley (no track record yet) · CHI: Petr Mrazek: team allows 0.12 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈29 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CHI +48 Elo | CHI 56.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHI 59.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHI 58.8% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| SJ | Stat | CHI |
|---|---|---|
| 30th of 312.3 | Goals scored | 2.131st of 31 |
| 31st of 314.0 | Goals allowed | 3.527th of 31 |
| 31st of 31−1.8 | Margin | −1.530th of 31 |
| 31st of 3142.1% | Shot share | 45.1%29th of 31 |
| 27th of 3189.4% | Save percentage | 89.7%24th of 31 |
| 30th of 311–9 | Last 10 | 1–930th of 31 |
| 30th of 316–27 | Road vs home | 12–2229th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
SJ 0–1 CHI in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.