St. Louis Blues at Ottawa Senators, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors OTT; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blues- Jake NeighboursGoals2
- Jordan KyrouAssists2
- Jordan KyrouPoints3
Senators- Mark KastelicGoals1
- Mathieu JosephAssists1
- Dominik KubalikPoints1
Scoring summary
- P318:32Jake Neighbours Goal (24) Wrist Shot, assists: none5–2
- P35:43Jordan Kyrou Goal (22) Wrist Shot, assists: Alexey Toropchenko (5), Pavel Buchnevich (29)4–2
- P31:58Dominik Kubalik Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: Shane Pinto (14), Claude Giroux (39)3–2
- P213:11Jake Neighbours Goal (23) Snap Shot, assists: none3–1
- P24:34Mark Kastelic Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Mathieu Joseph (22)2–1
- P114:57Colton Parayko Goal (10) Snap Shot, assists: Jordan Kyrou (31), Brandon Saad (13)2–0
- P111:54Brandon Saad Goal (21) Snap Shot, assists: Jordan Kyrou (30), Matthew Kessel (4)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P111:54Brandon Saad Goal (21) Snap Shot, assists: Jordan Kyrou (30), Matthew Kessel (4)STL 1 – 0 OTT · STL 46% → 62% +16STL 46% → 62%+16 pts
- P24:34Mark Kastelic Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Mathieu Joseph (22)STL 2 – 1 OTT · OTT 19% → 35% +15OTT 19% → 35%+15 pts
- P213:11Jake Neighbours Goal (23) Snap Shot, assists: noneSTL 3 – 1 OTT · STL 68% → 85% +16STL 68% → 85%+16 pts
- P31:58Dominik Kubalik Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: Shane Pinto (14), Claude Giroux (39)STL 3 – 2 OTT · OTT 10% → 27% +17OTT 10% → 27%+17 pts
- P35:43Jordan Kyrou Goal (22) Wrist Shot, assists: Alexey Toropchenko (5), Pavel Buchnevich (29)STL 4 – 2 OTT · STL 76% → 93% +17STL 76% → 93%+17 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Senators 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- OTT 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- OTT 51%
- Fair odds
- OTT -119
- STL +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- STL 3.0 – 3.2 OTT
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | STL | OTT | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1501 | 1471 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −2 | +3 | STL: Joel Hofer: team allows 0.06 more goals than with its usual starter (≈16 weighted starts) · OTT: Anton Forsberg: team allows 0.07 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈18 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | OTT +10 Elo | OTT 51.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | OTT 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | OTT 54.3% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| STL | Stat | OTT |
|---|---|---|
| 25th of 312.9 | Goals scored | 3.215th of 31 |
| 11th of 313.0 | Goals allowed | 3.526th of 31 |
| 18th of 31−0.1 | Margin | −0.425th of 31 |
| 27th of 3146.7% | Shot share | 52.1%9th of 31 |
| 4th of 3191.6% | Save percentage | 88.6%31st of 31 |
| 9th of 316–4 | Last 10 | 3–726th of 31 |
| 22nd of 3114–19 | Road vs home | 16–1618th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
STL 1–0 OTT in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.