Columbus Blue Jackets at Nashville Predators, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NSH; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blue Jackets- Trey Fix-WolanskyGoals2
- Justin DanforthAssists3
- Justin DanforthPoints3
Predators- Roman JosiGoals2
- Roman JosiAssists2
- Roman JosiPoints4
Scoring summary
- P319:30Trey Fix-Wolansky Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Justin Danforth (15), James Malatesta (2)4–6
- P36:02Trey Fix-Wolansky Goal (1) Backhand, assists: Justin Danforth (14), Erik Gudbranson (18)3–6
- P215:09Roman Josi Goal (23) Wrist Shot, assists: Luke Evangelista (23), Tommy Novak (27)2–6
- P213:12Filip Forsberg Goal (47) Tip-In, assists: Roman Josi (62), Gustav Nyquist (52)2–5
- P210:23Alexandre Texier Goal (12) Wrist Shot, assists: Damon Severson (19)2–4
- P24:52Cody Glass Goal (6) Tip-In, assists: Alexandre Carrier (16), Mark Jankowski (8)1–4
- P113:25Tommy Novak Goal (18) Wrist Shot, assists: Anthony Beauvillier (12), Ryan McDonagh (27)1–3
- P14:19Roman Josi Goal (22) Slap Shot, assists: Gustav Nyquist (51), Ryan O'Reilly (42)1–2
- P12:49Tommy Novak Goal (17) Wrist Shot, assists: Luke Evangelista (22), Roman Josi (61)1–1
- P12:04James Malatesta Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Justin Danforth (13)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P12:04James Malatesta Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Justin Danforth (13)CBJ 1 – 0 NSH · CBJ 47% → 61% +15CBJ 47% → 61%+15 pts
- P12:49Tommy Novak Goal (17) Wrist Shot, assists: Luke Evangelista (22), Roman Josi (61)CBJ 1 – 1 NSH · NSH 39% → 53% +15NSH 39% → 53%+15 pts
- P14:19Roman Josi Goal (22) Slap Shot, assists: Gustav Nyquist (51), Ryan O'Reilly (42)CBJ 1 – 2 NSH · NSH 53% → 68% +14NSH 53% → 68%+14 pts
- P113:25Tommy Novak Goal (18) Wrist Shot, assists: Anthony Beauvillier (12), Ryan McDonagh (27)CBJ 1 – 3 NSH · NSH 69% → 82% +13NSH 69% → 82%+13 pts
- P24:52Cody Glass Goal (6) Tip-In, assists: Alexandre Carrier (16), Mark Jankowski (8)CBJ 1 – 4 NSH · NSH 85% → 93% +9NSH 85% → 93%+9 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Predators 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- NSH 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NSH 65%
- Fair odds
- NSH -115
- CBJ +115 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CBJ 3.0 – 3.2 NSH
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CBJ | NSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1442 | 1534 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | — | −30 | NSH on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | −2 | +5 | CBJ: Jet Greaves: team allows 0.05 more goals than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) · NSH: Juuse Saros: team allows 0.12 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈35 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NSH +104 Elo | NSH 64.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NSH 50.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NSH 53.6% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| CBJ | Stat | NSH |
|---|---|---|
| 24th of 312.9 | Goals scored | 3.213th of 31 |
| 29th of 313.6 | Goals allowed | 2.99th of 31 |
| 28th of 31−0.8 | Margin | +0.412th of 31 |
| 26th of 3146.6% | Shot share | 51.3%11th of 31 |
| 20th of 3190.2% | Save percentage | 91.1%7th of 31 |
| 24th of 313–7 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 31 |
| 29th of 3110–29 | Road vs home | 21–1714th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
CBJ 0–1 NSH in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.