Nashville Predators at New Jersey Devils, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NJ; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Predators- Roman JosiGoals1
- Ryan O'ReillyAssists2
- Ryan O'ReillyPoints2
Devils- Chris TierneyGoals1
- Jesper BrattAssists1
- Chris TierneyPoints1
Scoring summary
- SO0:00Ryan O'Reilly Goal Wrist Shot1–0
- P312:45Luke Evangelista Goal (16) Wrist Shot, assists: Ryan O'Reilly (40), Filip Forsberg (46)2–2
- P32:11Chris Tierney Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Tomas Nosek (4)1–2
- P18:39Roman Josi Goal (21) Slap Shot, assists: Filip Forsberg (45), Ryan O'Reilly (39)1–1
- P11:49Jack Hughes Goal (27) Wrist Shot, assists: Luke Hughes (36), Jesper Bratt (54)0–1
Turning points
The 4 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P11:49Jack Hughes Goal (27) Wrist Shot, assists: Luke Hughes (36), Jesper Bratt (54)NSH 0 – 1 NJ · NJ 53% → 68% +14NJ 53% → 68%+14 pts
- P18:39Roman Josi Goal (21) Slap Shot, assists: Filip Forsberg (45), Ryan O'Reilly (39)NSH 1 – 1 NJ · NSH 32% → 47% +15NSH 32% → 47%+15 pts
- P32:11Chris Tierney Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Tomas Nosek (4)NSH 1 – 2 NJ · NJ 52% → 76% +24NJ 52% → 76%+24 pts
- P312:45Luke Evangelista Goal (16) Wrist Shot, assists: Ryan O'Reilly (40), Filip Forsberg (46)NSH 2 – 2 NJ · NSH 14% → 49% +35NSH 14% → 49%+35 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Devils 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- NJ 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NJ 47%
- Fair odds
- NJ -115
- NSH +115 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NSH 3.0 – 3.2 NJ
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NSH | NJ | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1531 | 1493 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | −30 | NJ and NSH on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | +6 | −12 | NSH: Juuse Saros: team allows 0.14 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈34 weighted starts) · NJ: Kaapo Kahkonen: team allows 0.31 more goals than with its usual starter (≈22 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NSH +21 Elo | NSH 53.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NJ 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NJ 53.4% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| NSH | Stat | NJ |
|---|---|---|
| 14th of 313.2 | Goals scored | 3.310th of 31 |
| 10th of 312.9 | Goals allowed | 3.425th of 31 |
| 13th of 31+0.3 | Margin | −0.118th of 31 |
| 14th of 3150.8% | Shot share | 51.0%13th of 31 |
| 7th of 3191.1% | Save percentage | 89.6%27th of 31 |
| 2nd of 317–3 | Last 10 | 5–515th of 31 |
| 3rd of 3122–14 | Road vs home | 16–2025th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
NSH 0–1 NJ in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.