New Jersey Devils at New York Rangers, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NYR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Devils- Brendan SmithGoals1
- Jesper BrattAssists2
- Jesper BrattPoints2
Rangers- Alexis LafreniereGoals1
- Adam FoxAssists2
- Artemi PanarinPoints2
Scoring summary
- P315:03Chris Kreider Goal (36) Tip-In, assists: Adam Fox (53), Artemi Panarin (65)3–4
- P35:32Kaapo Kakko Goal (13) Wrist Shot, assists: none3–3
- P211:24Nico Hischier Goal (25) Wrist Shot, assists: Jesper Bratt (51)3–2
- P29:53Brendan Smith Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Jesper Bratt (50), Timo Meier (23)2–2
- P22:11Ondrej Palat Goal (10) Slap Shot, assists: Jack Hughes (46), Luke Hughes (34)1–2
- P118:03Alexis Lafrenière Goal (26) Backhand, assists: Alexander Wennberg (20), Jack Roslovic (22)0–2
- P19:22Artemi Panarin Goal (45) Snap Shot, assists: Alexis Lafrenière (28), Adam Fox (52)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P19:22Artemi Panarin Goal (45) Snap Shot, assists: Alexis Lafrenière (28), Adam Fox (52)NJ 0 – 1 NYR · NYR 60% → 75% +14NYR 60% → 75%+14 pts
- P29:53Brendan Smith Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Jesper Bratt (50), Timo Meier (23)NJ 2 – 2 NYR · NJ 24% → 42% +18NJ 24% → 42%+18 pts
- P211:24Nico Hischier Goal (25) Wrist Shot, assists: Jesper Bratt (51)NJ 3 – 2 NYR · NJ 42% → 63% +21NJ 42% → 63%+21 pts
- P35:32Kaapo Kakko Goal (13) Wrist Shot, assists: noneNJ 3 – 3 NYR · NYR 27% → 56% +28NYR 27% → 56%+28 pts
- P315:03Chris Kreider Goal (36) Tip-In, assists: Adam Fox (53), Artemi Panarin (65)NJ 3 – 4 NYR · NYR 53% → 91% +38NYR 53% → 91%+38 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Rangers 61%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 62.4% of 599 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- NYR 61%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYR 69%
- Fair odds
- NYR -158
- NJ +158 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NJ 2.8 – 3.4 NYR
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NJ | NYR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1492 | 1553 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | — | NJ on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | −14 | −4 | NJ: Kaapo Kahkonen: team allows 0.35 more goals than with its usual starter (≈22 weighted starts) · NYR: Igor Shesterkin: team allows 0.10 more goals than with its usual starter (≈31 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYR +136 Elo | NYR 68.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYR 59.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYR 61.2% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| NJ | Stat | NYR |
|---|---|---|
| 10th of 313.3 | Goals scored | 3.48th of 31 |
| 25th of 313.4 | Goals allowed | 2.87th of 31 |
| 19th of 31−0.1 | Margin | +0.67th of 31 |
| 12th of 3151.2% | Shot share | 50.2%17th of 31 |
| 27th of 3189.5% | Save percentage | 91.2%5th of 31 |
| 14th of 315–5 | Last 10 | 7–34th of 31 |
| 10th of 3119–17 | Road vs home | 25–102nd of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
NJ 0–3 NYR in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 3.