Ottawa Senators at New Jersey Devils, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NJ; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Senators- Mathieu JosephGoals1
- Brady TkachukAssists2
- Thomas ChabotPoints2
Devils- Tomas NosekGoals1
- Dawson MercerAssists1
- Tomas NosekPoints1
Scoring summary
- P310:15Drake Batherson Goal (24) Backhand, assists: Brady Tkachuk (28)5–2
- P29:01Thomas Chabot Goal (8) Snap Shot, assists: Brady Tkachuk (27), Erik Brannstrom (13)4–2
- P26:02Angus Crookshank Goal (2) Slap Shot, assists: Thomas Chabot (19), Tim Stützle (48)3–2
- P24:06Ridly Greig Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: Mathieu Joseph (23)2–2
- P20:59Tomas Nosek Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Ondrej Palat (20), Dawson Mercer (12)1–2
- P20:23Jesper Bratt Goal (23) Backhand, assists: none1–1
- P14:56Mathieu Joseph Goal (11) Snap Shot, assists: none1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P20:23Jesper Bratt Goal (23) Backhand, assists: noneOTT 1 – 1 NJ · NJ 37% → 55% +18NJ 37% → 55%+18 pts
- P20:59Tomas Nosek Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Ondrej Palat (20), Dawson Mercer (12)OTT 1 – 2 NJ · NJ 55% → 72% +17NJ 55% → 72%+17 pts
- P24:06Ridly Greig Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: Mathieu Joseph (23)OTT 2 – 2 NJ · OTT 28% → 45% +18OTT 28% → 45%+18 pts
- P26:02Angus Crookshank Goal (2) Slap Shot, assists: Thomas Chabot (19), Tim Stützle (48)OTT 3 – 2 NJ · OTT 45% → 64% +19OTT 45% → 64%+19 pts
- P29:01Thomas Chabot Goal (8) Snap Shot, assists: Brady Tkachuk (27), Erik Brannstrom (13)OTT 4 – 2 NJ · OTT 66% → 82% +16OTT 66% → 82%+16 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Devils 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- NJ 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NJ 60%
- Fair odds
- NJ -127
- OTT +127 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- OTT 3.0 – 3.3 NJ
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | OTT | NJ | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1466 | 1496 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −4 | 0 | OTT: Joonas Korpisalo: team allows 0.10 more goals than with its usual starter (≈27 weighted starts) · NJ: Jake Allen: team allows 0.00 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈19 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NJ +69 Elo | NJ 59.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NJ 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NJ 56.0% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| OTT | Stat | NJ |
|---|---|---|
| 15th of 313.2 | Goals scored | 3.311th of 31 |
| 28th of 313.6 | Goals allowed | 3.424th of 31 |
| 25th of 31−0.4 | Margin | −0.118th of 31 |
| 8th of 3152.2% | Shot share | 51.7%10th of 31 |
| 31st of 3188.5% | Save percentage | 89.5%27th of 31 |
| 23rd of 313–7 | Last 10 | 4–618th of 31 |
| 28th of 3110–21 | Road vs home | 16–1822nd of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
OTT 0–1 NJ in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.