Winnipeg Jets at New Jersey Devils, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NJ; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Jets- Nikolaj EhlersGoals1
- Dylan DeMeloAssists1
- Nikolaj EhlersPoints1
Devils- Jack HughesGoals2
- Luke HughesAssists3
- Timo MeierPoints3
Scoring summary
- P319:11Timo Meier Goal (22) Backhand, assists: Erik Haula (18), Nico Hischier (32)1–4
- P311:52Jack Hughes Goal (23) Wrist Shot, assists: Timo Meier (19), Luke Hughes (30)1–3
- P35:59Nico Hischier Goal (23) Tip-In, assists: Timo Meier (18), Luke Hughes (29)1–2
- P216:47Nikolaj Ehlers Goal (21) Wrist Shot, assists: Mark Scheifele (41), Dylan DeMelo (22)1–1
- P29:00Jack Hughes Goal (22) Snap Shot, assists: Nico Hischier (31), Luke Hughes (28)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P29:00Jack Hughes Goal (22) Snap Shot, assists: Nico Hischier (31), Luke Hughes (28)WPG 0 – 1 NJ · NJ 52% → 71% +19NJ 52% → 71%+19 pts
- P216:47Nikolaj Ehlers Goal (21) Wrist Shot, assists: Mark Scheifele (41), Dylan DeMelo (22)WPG 1 – 1 NJ · WPG 26% → 48% +22WPG 26% → 48%+22 pts
- P35:59Nico Hischier Goal (23) Tip-In, assists: Timo Meier (18), Luke Hughes (29)WPG 1 – 2 NJ · NJ 51% → 79% +27NJ 51% → 79%+27 pts
- P311:52Jack Hughes Goal (23) Wrist Shot, assists: Timo Meier (19), Luke Hughes (30)WPG 1 – 3 NJ · NJ 85% → 98% +13NJ 85% → 98%+13 pts
- P319:11Timo Meier Goal (22) Backhand, assists: Erik Haula (18), Nico Hischier (32)WPG 1 – 4 NJ · NJ >99% → 100% +0NJ >99% → 100%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Devils 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- NJ 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NJ 45%
- Fair odds
- NJ -113
- WPG +113 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WPG 3.0 – 3.2 NJ
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WPG | NJ | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1547 | 1491 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +7 | −4 | WPG: Laurent Brossoit: team allows 0.19 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈15 weighted starts) · NJ: Jake Allen: team allows 0.11 more goals than with its usual starter (≈19 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | WPG +33 Elo | WPG 54.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NJ 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NJ 53.1% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| WPG | Stat | NJ |
|---|---|---|
| 19th of 313.0 | Goals scored | 3.311th of 31 |
| 1st of 312.3 | Goals allowed | 3.425th of 31 |
| 4th of 31+0.7 | Margin | −0.119th of 31 |
| 14th of 3150.8% | Shot share | 51.5%12th of 31 |
| 1st of 3192.6% | Save percentage | 89.5%27th of 31 |
| 4th of 317–3 | Last 10 | 4–620th of 31 |
| 5th of 3119–13 | Road vs home | 15–1823rd of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
WPG 1–0 NJ in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.