New Jersey Devils at Toronto Maple Leafs, NHL forecast
You didn't pick this one.
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors TOR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Devils- Jack HughesGoals2
- Curtis LazarAssists3
- Nico HischierPoints3
Maple Leafs- Tyler BertuzziGoals1
- TJ BrodieAssists2
- TJ BrodiePoints2
Scoring summary
- P318:51Jack Hughes Goal (26) Wrist Shot, assists: Curtis Lazar (18), Brendan Smith (7)6–3
- P316:47Jack Hughes Goal (25) Wrist Shot, assists: Curtis Lazar (17)5–3
- P213:05Max Willman Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Curtis Lazar (16), Chris Tierney (7)4–3
- P25:35Timo Meier Goal (24) Wrist Shot, assists: Jesper Bratt (49), Nico Hischier (34)3–3
- P24:51Auston Matthews Goal (59) Wrist Shot, assists: Ilya Lyubushkin (7), TJ Brodie (20)2–3
- P23:14William Nylander Goal (40) Wrist Shot, assists: Conor Timmins (6), Matthew Knies (17)2–2
- P117:56Nico Hischier Goal (24) Wrist Shot, assists: Jesper Bratt (48), Timo Meier (21)2–1
- P14:25Luke Hughes Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Jesper Bratt (47), Nico Hischier (33)1–1
- P11:04Tyler Bertuzzi Goal (16) Wrist Shot, assists: Max Domi (33), TJ Brodie (19)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P117:56Nico Hischier Goal (24) Wrist Shot, assists: Jesper Bratt (48), Timo Meier (21)NJ 2 – 1 TOR · NJ 45% → 62% +17NJ 45% → 62%+17 pts
- P23:14William Nylander Goal (40) Wrist Shot, assists: Conor Timmins (6), Matthew Knies (17)NJ 2 – 2 TOR · TOR 36% → 55% +18TOR 36% → 55%+18 pts
- P24:51Auston Matthews Goal (59) Wrist Shot, assists: Ilya Lyubushkin (7), TJ Brodie (20)NJ 2 – 3 TOR · TOR 55% → 72% +18TOR 55% → 72%+18 pts
- P25:35Timo Meier Goal (24) Wrist Shot, assists: Jesper Bratt (49), Nico Hischier (34)NJ 3 – 3 TOR · NJ 28% → 45% +18NJ 28% → 45%+18 pts
- P213:05Max Willman Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Curtis Lazar (16), Chris Tierney (7)NJ 4 – 3 TOR · NJ 46% → 67% +21NJ 46% → 67%+21 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Maple Leafs 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- TOR 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TOR 60%
- Fair odds
- TOR -127
- NJ +127 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NJ 3.0 – 3.3 TOR
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NJ | TOR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1496 | 1532 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | 0 | −1 | NJ: Jake Allen: team allows 0.00 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈20 weighted starts) · TOR: Joseph Woll: team allows 0.03 more goals than with its usual starter (≈15 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TOR +69 Elo | TOR 59.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TOR 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TOR 56.0% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| NJ | Stat | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| 11th of 313.3 | Goals scored | 3.62nd of 31 |
| 24th of 313.4 | Goals allowed | 3.219th of 31 |
| 19th of 31−0.1 | Margin | +0.510th of 31 |
| 11th of 3151.5% | Shot share | 52.1%7th of 31 |
| 24th of 3189.6% | Save percentage | 90.1%19th of 31 |
| 13th of 315–5 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 31 |
| 11th of 3118–16 | Road vs home | 18–1516th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.