New Jersey Devils at New York Islanders, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NYI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Devils- Jack HughesGoals1
- Jack HughesAssists1
- Timo MeierPoints2
IslandersScoring summary
- P315:53Chris Tierney Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Erik Haula (19), Kevin Bahl (10)4–0
- P26:12Alexander Holtz Goal (16) Wrist Shot, assists: Simon Nemec (16)3–0
- P22:57Jack Hughes Goal (24) Wrist Shot, assists: Timo Meier (20), Jesper Bratt (46)2–0
- P20:38Timo Meier Goal (23) Tip-In, assists: Jack Hughes (45), Luke Hughes (31)1–0
Turning points
The 4 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P20:38Timo Meier Goal (23) Tip-In, assists: Jack Hughes (45), Luke Hughes (31)NJ 1 – 0 NYI · NJ 46% → 64% +18NJ 46% → 64%+18 pts
- P22:57Jack Hughes Goal (24) Wrist Shot, assists: Timo Meier (20), Jesper Bratt (46)NJ 2 – 0 NYI · NJ 64% → 80% +15NJ 64% → 80%+15 pts
- P26:12Alexander Holtz Goal (16) Wrist Shot, assists: Simon Nemec (16)NJ 3 – 0 NYI · NJ 81% → 91% +10NJ 81% → 91%+10 pts
- P315:53Chris Tierney Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Erik Haula (19), Kevin Bahl (10)NJ 4 – 0 NYI · NJ >99% → >99% +0NJ >99% → >99%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Islanders 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- NYI 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYI 55%
- Fair odds
- NYI -122
- NJ +122 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NJ 3.0 – 3.3 NYI
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NJ | NYI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1491 | 1470 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | −30 | NYI and NJ on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | −22 | −3 | NJ: Kaapo Kahkonen: team allows 0.56 more goals than with its usual starter (≈21 weighted starts) · NYI: Ilya Sorokin: team allows 0.09 more goals than with its usual starter (≈31 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYI +34 Elo | NYI 54.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYI 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYI 55.0% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| NJ | Stat | NYI |
|---|---|---|
| 11th of 313.3 | Goals scored | 3.019th of 31 |
| 24th of 313.4 | Goals allowed | 3.425th of 31 |
| 19th of 31−0.1 | Margin | −0.426th of 31 |
| 10th of 3151.6% | Shot share | 47.5%23rd of 31 |
| 29th of 3189.4% | Save percentage | 90.6%12th of 31 |
| 18th of 314–6 | Last 10 | 4–618th of 31 |
| 12th of 3117–16 | Road vs home | 15–1825th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
NJ 2–0 NYI in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 2.