Winnipeg Jets at New York Islanders, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NYI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Jets- Mason AppletonGoals1
- Morgan BarronAssists1
- Vladislav NamestnikovPoints1
Islanders- Cal ClutterbuckGoals2
- Hudson FaschingAssists2
- Hudson FaschingPoints3
Scoring summary
- P317:50Cole Perfetti Goal (15) Wrist Shot, assists: none3–6
- P37:37Mason Appleton Goal (13) Wrist Shot, assists: Nikolaj Ehlers (30), Josh Morrissey (50)2–6
- P215:32Anders Lee Goal (18) Wrist Shot, assists: Mathew Barzal (51), Hudson Fasching (7)1–6
- P29:11Mathew Barzal Goal (22) Wrist Shot, assists: Hudson Fasching (6), Anders Lee (14)1–5
- P21:51Hudson Fasching Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Mathew Barzal (50), Ryan Pulock (10)1–4
- P115:47Kyle Palmieri Goal (23) Wrist Shot, assists: Brock Nelson (31), Bo Horvat (34)1–3
- P111:20Vladislav Namestnikov Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Morgan Barron (6), Dylan DeMelo (23)1–2
- P18:50Cal Clutterbuck Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Matt Martin (4), Alexander Romanov (10)0–2
- P15:22Cal Clutterbuck Goal (6) Backhand, assists: none0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P15:22Cal Clutterbuck Goal (6) Backhand, assists: noneWPG 0 – 1 NYI · NYI 53% → 67% +15NYI 53% → 67%+15 pts
- P18:50Cal Clutterbuck Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Matt Martin (4), Alexander Romanov (10)WPG 0 – 2 NYI · NYI 68% → 80% +13NYI 68% → 80%+13 pts
- P111:20Vladislav Namestnikov Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Morgan Barron (6), Dylan DeMelo (23)WPG 1 – 2 NYI · WPG 19% → 32% +13WPG 19% → 32%+13 pts
- P115:47Kyle Palmieri Goal (23) Wrist Shot, assists: Brock Nelson (31), Bo Horvat (34)WPG 1 – 3 NYI · NYI 69% → 82% +13NYI 69% → 82%+13 pts
- P21:51Hudson Fasching Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Mathew Barzal (50), Ryan Pulock (10)WPG 1 – 4 NYI · NYI 83% → 92% +9NYI 83% → 92%+9 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Islanders 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- NYI 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYI 45%
- Fair odds
- NYI -112
- WPG +112 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WPG 3.0 – 3.2 NYI
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WPG | NYI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1542 | 1465 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −1 | +3 | WPG: Connor Hellebuyck: team allows 0.01 more goals than with its usual starter (≈31 weighted starts) · NYI: Semyon Varlamov: team allows 0.09 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈16 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | WPG +38 Elo | WPG 55.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYI 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYI 52.9% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| WPG | Stat | NYI |
|---|---|---|
| 19th of 313.0 | Goals scored | 3.021st of 31 |
| 1st of 312.4 | Goals allowed | 3.425th of 31 |
| 7th of 31+0.6 | Margin | −0.526th of 31 |
| 15th of 3150.5% | Shot share | 47.4%24th of 31 |
| 1st of 3192.6% | Save percentage | 90.6%13th of 31 |
| 8th of 316–4 | Last 10 | 4–617th of 31 |
| 7th of 3119–14 | Road vs home | 14–1825th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
WPG 1–0 NYI in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.