Pittsburgh Penguins at New Jersey Devils, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NJ; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Penguins- Evgeni MalkinGoals2
- Michael BuntingAssists2
- Evgeni MalkinPoints3
Devils- Curtis LazarGoals1
- John MarinoAssists2
- John MarinoPoints2
Scoring summary
- P317:07Sidney Crosby Goal (39) Poke, assists: Bryan Rust (24)6–3
- P316:38Evgeni Malkin Goal (23) Tip-In, assists: Michael Bunting (29), Kris Letang (38)5–3
- P316:16Rickard Rakell Goal (13) Tip-In, assists: Marcus Pettersson (24)4–3
- P37:55Evgeni Malkin Goal (22) Tip-In, assists: Jack St. Ivany (1), Michael Bunting (28)3–3
- P36:48Sidney Crosby Goal (38) Wrist Shot, assists: Evgeni Malkin (36), Bryan Rust (23)2–3
- P217:47Jesper Bratt Goal (25) Wrist Shot, assists: Nico Hischier (37), John Marino (21)1–3
- P29:42Curtis Lazar Goal (7) Snap Shot, assists: Tomas Nosek (3), John Marino (20)1–2
- P119:43Timo Meier Goal (25) Slap Shot, assists: Luke Hughes (33), Nico Hischier (36)1–1
- P17:54Erik Karlsson Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: none1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P17:54Erik Karlsson Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: nonePIT 1 – 0 NJ · PIT 41% → 57% +16PIT 41% → 57%+16 pts
- P119:43Timo Meier Goal (25) Slap Shot, assists: Luke Hughes (33), Nico Hischier (36)PIT 1 – 1 NJ · NJ 40% → 58% +18NJ 40% → 58%+18 pts
- P29:42Curtis Lazar Goal (7) Snap Shot, assists: Tomas Nosek (3), John Marino (20)PIT 1 – 2 NJ · NJ 57% → 75% +19NJ 57% → 75%+19 pts
- P37:55Evgeni Malkin Goal (22) Tip-In, assists: Jack St. Ivany (1), Michael Bunting (28)PIT 3 – 3 NJ · PIT 18% → 46% +28PIT 18% → 46%+28 pts
- P316:16Rickard Rakell Goal (13) Tip-In, assists: Marcus Pettersson (24)PIT 4 – 3 NJ · PIT 48% → 92% +44PIT 48% → 92%+44 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Devils 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- NJ 60%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NJ 61%
- Fair odds
- NJ -147
- PIT +147 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PIT 2.8 – 3.4 NJ
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PIT | NJ | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1489 | 1497 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | — | PIT on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | −2 | −1 | PIT: Alex Nedeljkovic: team allows 0.05 more goals than with its usual starter (≈20 weighted starts) · NJ: Jake Allen: team allows 0.04 more goals than with its usual starter (≈21 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NJ +74 Elo | NJ 60.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NJ 59.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NJ 59.5% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| PIT | Stat | NJ |
|---|---|---|
| 20th of 313.0 | Goals scored | 3.310th of 31 |
| 15th of 313.0 | Goals allowed | 3.424th of 31 |
| 16th of 310.0 | Margin | −0.118th of 31 |
| 10th of 3151.9% | Shot share | 51.2%12th of 31 |
| 13th of 3190.6% | Save percentage | 89.7%26th of 31 |
| 15th of 315–5 | Last 10 | 5–515th of 31 |
| 27th of 3113–23 | Road vs home | 16–1924th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
PIT 0–2 NJ in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 2.