New Jersey Devils at Buffalo Sabres, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors BUF; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Devils- Max WillmanGoals1
- Chris TierneyAssists1
- Max WillmanPoints1
Sabres- Tage ThompsonGoals4
- Alex TuchAssists2
- Tage ThompsonPoints4
Scoring summary
- P319:54Tage Thompson Goal (26) Wrist Shot, assists: Henri Jokiharju (13)2–5
- P319:22JJ Peterka Goal (26) Wrist Shot, assists: Dylan Cozens (27), Owen Power (23)2–4
- P315:26Tage Thompson Goal (25) Backhand, assists: Rasmus Dahlin (36), Alex Tuch (32)2–3
- P217:29Tage Thompson Goal (24) Wrist Shot, assists: Alex Tuch (31)2–2
- P20:28Tage Thompson Goal (23) Wrist Shot, assists: none2–1
- P110:31Jesper Bratt Goal (24) Wrist Shot, assists: Nico Hischier (35), Timo Meier (22)2–0
- P13:00Max Willman Goal (3) Tip-In, assists: Luke Hughes (32), Chris Tierney (8)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P13:00Max Willman Goal (3) Tip-In, assists: Luke Hughes (32), Chris Tierney (8)NJ 1 – 0 BUF · NJ 46% → 61% +15NJ 46% → 61%+15 pts
- P110:31Jesper Bratt Goal (24) Wrist Shot, assists: Nico Hischier (35), Timo Meier (22)NJ 2 – 0 BUF · NJ 62% → 76% +14NJ 62% → 76%+14 pts
- P20:28Tage Thompson Goal (23) Wrist Shot, assists: noneNJ 2 – 1 BUF · BUF 21% → 36% +15BUF 21% → 36%+15 pts
- P217:29Tage Thompson Goal (24) Wrist Shot, assists: Alex Tuch (31)NJ 2 – 2 BUF · BUF 30% → 52% +23BUF 30% → 52%+23 pts
- P315:26Tage Thompson Goal (25) Backhand, assists: Rasmus Dahlin (36), Alex Tuch (32)NJ 2 – 3 BUF · BUF 51% → 91% +40BUF 51% → 91%+40 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Sabres 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- BUF 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BUF 49%
- Fair odds
- BUF -117
- NJ +117 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NJ 3.0 – 3.2 BUF
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NJ | BUF | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1502 | 1493 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +1 | −29 | NJ: Jake Allen: team allows 0.02 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈20 weighted starts) · BUF: Devon Levi: team allows 0.72 more goals than with its usual starter (≈16 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NJ +4 Elo | NJ 50.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BUF 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BUF 53.9% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| NJ | Stat | BUF |
|---|---|---|
| 10th of 313.3 | Goals scored | 3.019th of 31 |
| 24th of 313.4 | Goals allowed | 3.116th of 31 |
| 16th of 310.0 | Margin | −0.119th of 31 |
| 12th of 3151.3% | Shot share | 51.3%11th of 31 |
| 26th of 3189.7% | Save percentage | 90.2%19th of 31 |
| 10th of 316–4 | Last 10 | 5–516th of 31 |
| 8th of 3119–16 | Road vs home | 16–1923rd of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
NJ 2–0 BUF in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 2.