Buffalo Sabres at Calgary Flames, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CGY; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Sabres- Tage ThompsonGoals1
- Tage ThompsonAssists1
- Tage ThompsonPoints2
Flames- Jonathan HuberdeauGoals1
- Yegor SharangovichAssists1
- Jonathan HuberdeauPoints1
Scoring summary
- P319:58Connor Clifton Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen (1)4–1
- P319:15Tage Thompson Goal (22) Wrist Shot, assists: none3–1
- P311:04JJ Peterka Goal (24) Snap Shot, assists: Tage Thompson (23), Alex Tuch (29)2–1
- P210:35Jonathan Huberdeau Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Yegor Sharangovich (23), Daniil Miromanov (1)1–1
- P14:53Peyton Krebs Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Lukas Rousek (2)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P14:53Peyton Krebs Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Lukas Rousek (2)BUF 1 – 0 CGY · BUF 50% → 64% +15BUF 50% → 64%+15 pts
- P210:35Jonathan Huberdeau Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Yegor Sharangovich (23), Daniil Miromanov (1)BUF 1 – 1 CGY · CGY 30% → 50% +20CGY 30% → 50%+20 pts
- P311:04JJ Peterka Goal (24) Snap Shot, assists: Tage Thompson (23), Alex Tuch (29)BUF 2 – 1 CGY · BUF 50% → 83% +33BUF 50% → 83%+33 pts
- P319:15Tage Thompson Goal (22) Wrist Shot, assists: noneBUF 3 – 1 CGY · BUF >99% → >99% +0BUF >99% → >99%+0 pts
- P319:58Connor Clifton Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen (1)BUF 4 – 1 CGY · BUF 100% → 100% +0BUF 100% → 100%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Flames 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- CGY 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CGY 49%
- Fair odds
- CGY -102
- BUF +102 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BUF 3.1 – 3.1 CGY
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BUF | CGY | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1495 | 1491 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | — | −30 | CGY on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | +2 | −3 | BUF: Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen: team allows 0.06 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈28 weighted starts) · CGY: Dustin Wolf: team allows 0.09 more goals than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BUF +5 Elo | BUF 50.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CGY 50.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CGY 50.4% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| BUF | Stat | CGY |
|---|---|---|
| 19th of 313.0 | Goals scored | 3.117th of 31 |
| 16th of 313.1 | Goals allowed | 3.320th of 31 |
| 17th of 31−0.1 | Margin | −0.222nd of 31 |
| 12th of 3151.5% | Shot share | 50.7%14th of 31 |
| 18th of 3190.1% | Save percentage | 89.9%22nd of 31 |
| 19th of 314–6 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 31 |
| 18th of 3116–19 | Road vs home | 17–1718th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
BUF 0–1 CGY in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.