Calgary Flames at Vancouver Canucks, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors VAN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Flames- Joel HanleyGoals1
- A.J. GreerAssists2
- A.J. GreerPoints2
Canucks- Nils HoglanderGoals2
- Elias PetterssonAssists2
- Nils HoglanderPoints2
Scoring summary
- P319:41Joel Hanley Goal (1) Slap Shot, assists: Brayden Pachal (4), A.J. Greer (6)2–4
- P318:50Elias Lindholm Goal (14) Wrist Shot, assists: none1–4
- P316:42J.T. Miller Goal (34) Slap Shot, assists: Brock Boeser (31), Quinn Hughes (67)1–3
- P218:31Rasmus Andersson Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: A.J. Greer (5), Kevin Rooney (1)1–2
- P28:16Nils Hoglander Goal (22) Backhand, assists: Elias Pettersson (51), Conor Garland (21)0–2
- P10:48Nils Hoglander Goal (21) Tip-In, assists: Elias Pettersson (50), Conor Garland (20)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P10:48Nils Hoglander Goal (21) Tip-In, assists: Elias Pettersson (50), Conor Garland (20)CGY 0 – 1 VAN · VAN 56% → 70% +14VAN 56% → 70%+14 pts
- P28:16Nils Hoglander Goal (22) Backhand, assists: Elias Pettersson (51), Conor Garland (21)CGY 0 – 2 VAN · VAN 73% → 87% +14VAN 73% → 87%+14 pts
- P218:31Rasmus Andersson Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: A.J. Greer (5), Kevin Rooney (1)CGY 1 – 2 VAN · CGY 10% → 24% +15CGY 10% → 24%+15 pts
- P316:42J.T. Miller Goal (34) Slap Shot, assists: Brock Boeser (31), Quinn Hughes (67)CGY 1 – 3 VAN · VAN 94% → >99% +5VAN 94% → >99%+5 pts
- P318:50Elias Lindholm Goal (14) Wrist Shot, assists: noneCGY 1 – 4 VAN · VAN >99% → >99% +0VAN >99% → >99%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Canucks 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- VAN 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- VAN 60%
- Fair odds
- VAN -127
- CGY +127 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CGY 2.9 – 3.3 VAN
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CGY | VAN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1494 | 1544 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +11 | −6 | CGY: Jacob Markstrom: team allows 0.27 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈28 weighted starts) · VAN: Casey DeSmith: team allows 0.16 more goals than with its usual starter (≈17 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | VAN +68 Elo | VAN 59.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | VAN 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | VAN 56.0% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| CGY | Stat | VAN |
|---|---|---|
| 17th of 313.1 | Goals scored | 3.56th of 31 |
| 20th of 313.3 | Goals allowed | 2.74th of 31 |
| 22nd of 31−0.2 | Margin | +0.81st of 31 |
| 14th of 3150.8% | Shot share | 49.5%19th of 31 |
| 22nd of 3189.9% | Save percentage | 91.1%9th of 31 |
| 14th of 315–5 | Last 10 | 6–48th of 31 |
| 20th of 3114–17 | Road vs home | 22–113rd of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
CGY 1–1 VAN in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 2.