Ottawa Senators at Buffalo Sabres, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors BUF; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Senators- Shane PintoGoals1
- Shane PintoAssists3
- Shane PintoPoints4
Sabres- JJ PeterkaGoals1
- Jacob BrysonAssists2
- Jacob BrysonPoints2
Scoring summary
- P316:43Shane Pinto Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Drake Batherson (31), Jakob Chychrun (24)6–2
- P213:07Connor Clifton Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Jacob Bryson (7)5–2
- P22:54JJ Peterka Goal (25) Wrist Shot, assists: Alex Tuch (30), Jacob Bryson (6)5–1
- P119:11Brady Tkachuk Goal (32) Tip-In, assists: Thomas Chabot (20), Shane Pinto (17)5–0
- P18:49Jakob Chychrun Goal (12) Slap Shot, assists: Shane Pinto (16)4–0
- P16:01Drake Batherson Goal (26) Backhand, assists: Brady Tkachuk (31), Shane Pinto (15)3–0
- P14:56Boris Katchouk Goal (6) Tip-In, assists: Parker Kelly (9), Mark Kastelic (4)2–0
- P12:37Artem Zub Goal (4) Poke, assists: Mark Kastelic (3), Boris Katchouk (6)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P12:37Artem Zub Goal (4) Poke, assists: Mark Kastelic (3), Boris Katchouk (6)OTT 1 – 0 BUF · OTT 44% → 59% +15OTT 44% → 59%+15 pts
- P14:56Boris Katchouk Goal (6) Tip-In, assists: Parker Kelly (9), Mark Kastelic (4)OTT 2 – 0 BUF · OTT 60% → 73% +14OTT 60% → 73%+14 pts
- P16:01Drake Batherson Goal (26) Backhand, assists: Brady Tkachuk (31), Shane Pinto (15)OTT 3 – 0 BUF · OTT 74% → 85% +11OTT 74% → 85%+11 pts
- P18:49Jakob Chychrun Goal (12) Slap Shot, assists: Shane Pinto (16)OTT 4 – 0 BUF · OTT 85% → 93% +7OTT 85% → 93%+7 pts
- P213:07Connor Clifton Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Jacob Bryson (7)OTT 5 – 2 BUF · BUF 2% → 6% +4BUF 2% → 6%+4 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Sabres 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- BUF 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BUF 59%
- Fair odds
- BUF -126
- OTT +126 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- OTT 2.9 – 3.3 BUF
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | OTT | BUF | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1476 | 1499 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −1 | +4 | OTT: Joonas Korpisalo: team allows 0.03 more goals than with its usual starter (≈28 weighted starts) · BUF: Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen: team allows 0.10 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈29 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BUF +63 Elo | BUF 59.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BUF 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BUF 55.8% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| OTT | Stat | BUF |
|---|---|---|
| 14th of 313.2 | Goals scored | 3.019th of 31 |
| 28th of 313.5 | Goals allowed | 3.015th of 31 |
| 25th of 31−0.3 | Margin | 0.016th of 31 |
| 8th of 3151.9% | Shot share | 51.4%11th of 31 |
| 31st of 3188.6% | Save percentage | 90.2%17th of 31 |
| 14th of 315–5 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 31 |
| 28th of 3111–21 | Road vs home | 16–1822nd of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
OTT 1–2 BUF in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 3.