Edmonton Oilers at Ottawa Senators, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors OTT; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Oilers- Adam HenriqueGoals1
- Evan BouchardAssists3
- Evan BouchardPoints3
Senators- Jakob ChychrunGoals2
- Tim StutzleAssists2
- Drake BathersonPoints3
Scoring summary
- P319:22Parker Kelly Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Claude Giroux (40)3–5
- P316:57Jakob Chychrun Goal (11) Slap Shot, assists: Drake Batherson (30), Brady Tkachuk (30)3–4
- P216:30Drake Batherson Goal (25) Wrist Shot, assists: Brady Tkachuk (29), Tim Stützle (50)3–3
- P24:48Tim Stützle Goal (18) Wrist Shot, assists: Mathieu Joseph (24), Erik Brannstrom (14)3–2
- P23:34Zach Hyman Goal (50) Wrist Shot, assists: Connor McDavid (91), Evan Bouchard (57)3–1
- P21:38Leon Draisaitl Goal (37) Snap Shot, assists: Evan Bouchard (56), Connor McDavid (90)2–1
- P15:37Jakob Chychrun Goal (10) Snap Shot, assists: Drake Batherson (29), Tim Stützle (49)1–1
- P13:49Adam Henrique Goal (20) Deflected, assists: Mattias Ekholm (27), Evan Bouchard (55)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P15:37Jakob Chychrun Goal (10) Snap Shot, assists: Drake Batherson (29), Tim Stützle (49)EDM 1 – 1 OTT · OTT 38% → 53% +15OTT 38% → 53%+15 pts
- P21:38Leon Draisaitl Goal (37) Snap Shot, assists: Evan Bouchard (56), Connor McDavid (90)EDM 2 – 1 OTT · EDM 48% → 66% +18EDM 48% → 66%+18 pts
- P24:48Tim Stützle Goal (18) Wrist Shot, assists: Mathieu Joseph (24), Erik Brannstrom (14)EDM 3 – 2 OTT · OTT 18% → 34% +15OTT 18% → 34%+15 pts
- P216:30Drake Batherson Goal (25) Wrist Shot, assists: Brady Tkachuk (29), Tim Stützle (50)EDM 3 – 3 OTT · OTT 29% → 52% +22OTT 29% → 52%+22 pts
- P316:57Jakob Chychrun Goal (11) Slap Shot, assists: Drake Batherson (30), Brady Tkachuk (30)EDM 3 – 4 OTT · OTT 51% → 95% +44OTT 51% → 95%+44 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Senators 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- OTT 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- OTT 44%
- Fair odds
- OTT -112
- EDM +112 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- EDM 3.1 – 3.2 OTT
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | EDM | OTT | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1545 | 1472 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | −30 | OTT and EDM on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | +4 | −2 | EDM: Calvin Pickard: team allows 0.10 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈12 weighted starts) · OTT: Joonas Korpisalo: team allows 0.05 more goals than with its usual starter (≈27 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | EDM +44 Elo | EDM 56.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | OTT 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | OTT 52.8% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| EDM | Stat | OTT |
|---|---|---|
| 4th of 313.6 | Goals scored | 3.214th of 31 |
| 9th of 312.9 | Goals allowed | 3.526th of 31 |
| 4th of 31+0.7 | Margin | −0.325th of 31 |
| 4th of 3154.2% | Shot share | 52.2%8th of 31 |
| 11th of 3190.6% | Save percentage | 88.5%31st of 31 |
| 8th of 316–4 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 31 |
| 8th of 3118–15 | Road vs home | 16–1721st of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
EDM 1–0 OTT in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.