Pittsburgh Penguins at New York Rangers, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NYR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Penguins- Sidney CrosbyGoals2
- Kris LetangAssists2
- Sidney CrosbyPoints3
Rangers- Jack RoslovicGoals1
- Adam FoxAssists1
- Jack RoslovicPoints1
Scoring summary
- P319:15Sidney Crosby Goal (37) Wrist Shot, assists: none5–2
- P317:49Bryan Rust Goal (26) Wrist Shot, assists: Jeff Carter (4), Kris Letang (37)4–2
- P316:53Jack Roslovic Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Mika Zibanejad (40)3–2
- P310:42Kaapo Kakko Goal (12) Snap Shot, assists: Adam Fox (51), Artemi Panarin (64)3–1
- P39:51Emil Bemstrom Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Jesse Puljujarvi (1)3–0
- P110:39Sidney Crosby Goal (36) Tip-In, assists: Pierre-Olivier Joseph (8), Kris Letang (36)2–0
- P10:18Bryan Rust Goal (25) Backhand, assists: Sidney Crosby (45), Reilly Smith (23)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P10:18Bryan Rust Goal (25) Backhand, assists: Sidney Crosby (45), Reilly Smith (23)PIT 1 – 0 NYR · PIT 43% → 57% +15PIT 43% → 57%+15 pts
- P110:39Sidney Crosby Goal (36) Tip-In, assists: Pierre-Olivier Joseph (8), Kris Letang (36)PIT 2 – 0 NYR · PIT 59% → 74% +15PIT 59% → 74%+15 pts
- P39:51Emil Bemstrom Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Jesse Puljujarvi (1)PIT 3 – 0 NYR · PIT 96% → >99% +4PIT 96% → >99%+4 pts
- P310:42Kaapo Kakko Goal (12) Snap Shot, assists: Adam Fox (51), Artemi Panarin (64)PIT 3 – 1 NYR · NYR <1% → 4% +3NYR <1% → 4%+3 pts
- P316:53Jack Roslovic Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Mika Zibanejad (40)PIT 3 – 2 NYR · NYR <1% → 6% +6NYR <1% → 6%+6 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Rangers 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- NYR 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYR 66%
- Fair odds
- NYR -134
- PIT +134 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PIT 2.9 – 3.3 NYR
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PIT | NYR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1482 | 1559 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −4 | −2 | PIT: Alex Nedeljkovic: team allows 0.10 more goals than with its usual starter (≈19 weighted starts) · NYR: Igor Shesterkin: team allows 0.04 more goals than with its usual starter (≈31 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYR +114 Elo | NYR 65.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYR 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYR 57.3% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| PIT | Stat | NYR |
|---|---|---|
| 21st of 312.9 | Goals scored | 3.47th of 31 |
| 15th of 313.0 | Goals allowed | 2.87th of 31 |
| 16th of 31−0.1 | Margin | +0.77th of 31 |
| 10th of 3152.0% | Shot share | 50.1%17th of 31 |
| 13th of 3190.6% | Save percentage | 91.3%5th of 31 |
| 20th of 314–6 | Last 10 | 8–21st of 31 |
| 28th of 3112–23 | Road vs home | 25–92nd of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
PIT 0–2 NYR in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 0 of 2.